2011 IDP ADP Analysis – Defensive Linemen
Hello and welcome to the second part of a three part series covering IDP average draft positions (ADPs). This specific article will focus on examining the ADPs of defensive linemen.
My own personal drafting philosophy is heavily predicated on finding as much value as I can with each and every pick. Typically the later in drafts you delve, the more value there is to be found and finding this value is what separates the winners from the losers in fantasy football.
In this article, I will be comparing the ADP of defensive linemen (provided by My Fantasy League) to my redraft rankings for defensive linemen.
Keep in mind that some leagues require you to roster a DT and therefore some of the defensive tackles’ ADPs may be inflated a bit (e.g. Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Williams).
The break off point in determining whether a player was “undervalued” or “overvalued” was +/-7 points respectively. When taking a general overview of the results, this specific number seemed to signal the start of the outlying players. Although this number was chosen arbitrarily, it will suffice for our purposes in this article and should allow for some accurate estimates of true value. For each player that was over this threshold, I wrote a short analysis to sum up why they are either under or overvalued.
I hope this helps my readers get a better grasp on where defensive linemen should be taken in most leagues and that it will ultimately take you one step closer to your league championship.
| DEFENSIVE LINEMEN | ||||
| Player | Overall ADP | Positional ADP | IDP Guru’s Redraft Ranking | Difference |
| Tuck, Justin NYG DE | 92.39 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Suh, Ndamukong DET DT | 93 | 2 | 9 | -7 |
| Allen, Jared MIN DE | 101.37 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Cole, Trent PHI DE | 113.33 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Peppers, Julius CHI DE | 114.24 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Suggs, Terrell BAL DE | 117.01 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Johnson, Charles CAR DE | 139.32 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Mathis, Robert IND DE | 160.53 | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Dumervil, Elvis DEN DE | 162.91 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Umenyiora, Osi NYG DE | 166.96 | 10 | 13 | -3 |
| Dunlap, Carlos CIN DE | 182.03 | 11 | 19 | -8 |
| Ngata, Haloti BAL DT | 182.51 | 12 | 24 | -12 |
| Smith, Justin SFO DE | 191.49 | 13 | 11 | 2 |
| Long, Chris STL DE | 192.32 | 14 | 16 | -2 |
| Pierre-Paul, Jason NYG DE | 197.36 | 15 | 17 | -2 |
| Williams, Kyle BUF DT | 206.49 | 16 | 28 | -12 |
| Shaughnessy, Matt OAK DE | 207.51 | 17 | 14 | 3 |
| Babin, Jason PHI DE | 210.86 | 18 | 22 | -4 |
| Abraham, John ATL DE | 214.34 | 19 | 12 | 7 |
| Freeney, Dwight IND DE | 227.74 | 20 | 30 | -10 |
| Dockett, Darnell ARI DE | 248.73 | 21 | 15 | 6 |
| Edwards, Ray ATL DE | 248.77 | 22 | 10 | 12 |
| Vanden Bosch, Kyle DET DE | 258.95 | 23 | 18 | 5 |
Undervalued Players
1. RDE John Abraham (+7) – I suspect Abraham is slipping in drafts due to concerns about his age. He will be 33 heading into this season, but he seemed to still be playing at an elite level last year. He’s rotated out a decent amount which keeps him fresh. Also, the addition of Ray Edwards at LDE should help Abraham this year and I see no reason why he can’t put up 10-13 sacks again.
2. LDE Ray Edwards (+12) – Many writers believe that Edwards was heavily dependent on Jared Allen for his sack production and that he’s not good enough to produce those type of numbers outside of Minnesota. Although it may be true that Edwards is not a true DL1, he still doesn’t have to be in Atlanta. Abraham is one of the premier pass-rushing DEs in the league and Edwards should put up similar numbers to those he registered in Minnesota.
Overvalued Players
1. RDT Ndamukong Suh (-7) – Suh’s one of the most talented DTs to come into the league in the last ten years and established himself as a top 10 fantasy lineman last year. However, I would never take Suh above established ends like Trent Cole, Terrell Suggs, and Jared Allen. Don’t reach this high for Suh in leagues that don’t require a DT.
2. LDE Carlos Dunlap (-8) – Dunlap has been all over sleeper lists this season and I think his value may have gotten pumped up too much. He’s currently being taken above proven, veteran starters like Darnell Dockett and Justin Smith. Dunlap is currently struggling through a knee injury and will likely start the season behind Robert Geathers at left end. He’s got the talent to be drafted this high, but as of right now, the opportunity isn’t there. I will be dropping him down my rankings a couple of spots due to his relatively low snap count levels.
3. RDE Haloti Ngata (-12) – Ngata may qualify as a DT in some leagues and therefore his ADP may be spiked a bit. He’s a solid player that has put up consistent numbers over the last couple of seasons, but his upside is too limited to be taken in the top 12.
4. NT Kyle Williams (-12) – Williams has established himself as one of the more underrated DTs in the league and has placed in the top 30 for fantasy points scored at his position the last few seasons. He may be worth this draft spot in tackle heavy leagues, but in balanced leagues I think he deserves to be taken in the 25-30 range.
5. RDE Dwight Freeney (-10) – Year in and year out, Freeney is overdrafted. He produces in the sack column every year, but he just doesn’t produce enough tackles to be considered anything more than a DL3.
Last Updated: August 28, 2011
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