Where My 2026 IDP Rankings Disagree with My Projections

Jonathan Greenard, DE, Philadelphia Eagles

Greenard is a case where the model may simply be trusting the profile more than I am. The projection has him at 733 snaps, 51.2 total tackles, 8.9 sacks, 17 tackles for loss, and 142.7 fantasy points, which pushes him into DL2 territory. The underlying performance profile supports that optimism.

Greenard was not just a sack-dependent producer last season. PFF graded him well overall, as a pass rusher, and against the run, which matters because it gives him multiple paths to staying on the field. He is not the type of edge defender who needs to be hidden on early downs, and Philadelphia’s investment in him suggests the Eagles expect him to be more than a rotational pass-rush specialist.

So why am I lower? It is mostly a draft-room discount. Greenard is a very useful NFL player, but I am always cautious with Eagles edge rushers because Philadelphia can create fantasy frustration through rotation, negative game scripts, and weekly distribution of pressure. The model is looking at a strong all-around edge with enough snap volume and tackle-for-loss production to matter. My ranking is asking whether he has the week-to-week ceiling profile I want to chase ahead of flashier pass rushers.

Bottom line: If Greenard’s role is as stable as the projection assumes, DL24 is probably too conservative. But I am still more comfortable treating him as a low-end DL2 than pushing him into higher-end DL2/lower-end DL1 range before seeing exactly how Philadelphia deploys him.

Zack Baun, LB, Philadelphia Eagles

Baun is a useful example here because the model is not actually low on him. A projection of 963 snaps, 119 total tackles, 3.4 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 191.6 fantasy points is a strong LB2 profile. The disagreement is that I am willing to rank him closer to the LB1 line than the raw projection does.

This is where the projection may be a little too conservative. Baun’s move to inside linebacker in Philadelphia has unlocked him, and the Eagles have every reason to keep him central to Vic Fangio’s defense. The team has highlighted his conversion from outside linebacker to inside linebacker, his first-team All-Pro recognition, and his Defensive Player of the Year finalist-level impact. That is a much different profile than a normal “solid starter with good volume.”

The performance data supports being aggressive. PFF graded Baun at 83.0 overall last season, fifth among 88 qualified linebackers. He was also second in coverage grade, ninth as a pass rusher, and still respectable against the run. That type of three-phase profile gives him more ways to score than a pure tackle compiler.

The model is likely being held back by the fact that Baun’s projection is already strong but not elite in raw tackle volume. At linebacker, the easiest way to climb the projection ranks is to get into the 130-plus tackle range. Baun’s value is a little more balanced than that. He can win with tackles, but he also adds sacks, tackles for loss, passes defended, and interception upside. That broader stat profile is why I am comfortable ranking him ahead of the projection.

Bottom line: The projection says Baun is a quality LB2. My ranking says the role, player quality, and multi-category production make him worth treating more like a back-end LB1.

Tyrel Dodson, LB, Miami Dolphins

Dodson is one of the better examples of the model forcing a rankings gut check. The projection sees the same thing IDP managers saw last year: a productive, every-down linebacker who piled up tackles and added enough splash production to matter. If Dodson keeps that role, the LB27 projection is not aggressive. In fact, it may not be aggressive enough.

The concern is that his role feels more fragile than his 2025 box score suggests. Miami drafted Jacob Rodriguez in the second round and Kyle Louis in the fourth, and Rodriguez is the larger concern because he profiles as a future defensive signal-caller. ESPN noted that Miami made those additions even after Dodson and Jordyn Brooks combined for 318 tackles last season, which tells us the Dolphins were still looking to add real competition to the linebacker room.

There are also on-field reasons to wonder whether Dodson is on thinner ice than the tackle total implies. PFF had him with a 55.3 overall grade, 59th among 88 qualified linebackers, and a 45.4 coverage grade, 67th at the position. He also allowed a 108.1 passer rating when targeted and was charged with 13 missed tackles. That gives the coaching staff a football reason to explore rookie packages if Rodriguez or Louis proves trustworthy enough in coverage.

This is where the projection/ranking gap makes sense. I do not want to project Dodson like a part-time player unless I believe that outcome is more likely than not. But I also do not want to rank him as if last year’s role is completely safe. The model is showing the upside if the role holds. My ranking is discounting the risk that Miami’s rookie investments start eating into his snaps, passing-down work, or signal-caller responsibilities.

Bottom line: If Dodson keeps the green dot and remains a 90%+ player, he is too low at LB40. If Rodriguez pushes earlier than expected, Dodson could turn into a volume trap.

Cody Simon, LB, Arizona Cardinals

Simon is a good example of where I am willing to get ahead of the broader market, even if my projection model is not fully there yet. My LB50 ranking is still roughly 20 spots higher than the current expert consensus, so this is not a case where I am fading him. The projection is not burying him either, as 747 projected snaps and 92.5 total tackles is a usable LB5 profile. However, it is still treating him more like a partial-volume linebacker than a weekly starter.

My ranking is higher because the late-season role growth was notable. Simon appeared in 16 games as a rookie and started nine, but the more important detail is how he finished. After Mack Wilson Sr. went down, Simon took over the Mike linebacker role and started the final nine games. During Weeks 10–18, Arizona credited him with 67 tackles, second among NFL rookies over that span.

The model is being appropriately careful because we still need confirmation that Arizona views Simon as more than an injury replacement or bridge starter. Mack Wilson had already established himself as a team captain and defensive signal-caller before the injury, and the Cardinals have other linebackers who can factor into the mix. So the projection is asking for more proof before fully buying the role.

My ranking is more willing to bet that Simon’s rookie-year closing stretch mattered. He already handled the communication role, produced when given snaps, and now has a full offseason to build on that experience. This is the type of player where the projection can look underwhelming if it is still splitting the difference between “possible starter” and “confirmed every-down player.”

Bottom line: If Simon wins the full-time green-dot role, LB50 will still be too low. If Arizona treats last year’s finish as more circumstantial than predictive, the model’s caution will be justified.

Jordan Battle, S, Cincinnati Bengals

Battle is a good example of why this exercise needs context. On the surface, this looks like a case where I am significantly higher than the model. My DB15 ranking is 11 spots ahead of his DB26 projection, even though the projection is already accounting for a possible playing-time hit. But this is not really a “the model is too low and I love the player” situation. It is more about balancing risk, projection, and market cost.

Battle was one of the top fantasy defensive backs last season, so the fantasy appeal is obvious. The problem is that his box-score production was better than his on-field performance. He was a productive IDP asset, but he was not a particularly strong real-life safety, especially in coverage. That matters more this year because Cincinnati added Kyle Dugger, a veteran with significant starting experience and the physical profile to challenge for snaps. If the Bengals view Dugger as a stabilizing option next to Bryan Cook, Battle’s role is not as safe as last year’s fantasy finish might suggest.

That risk is already reflected in the projection. I am not projecting Battle like a locked-in, every-snap DB1 because there is a real possibility his playing time dips if Dugger earns a larger role. That is why the model lands him at DB26 despite his 2025 production. The projection is saying, “Yes, the upside is there, but the role is less secure than the box score implies.”

My ranking is still higher because I do not want to completely overcorrect. Battle has already shown he can pile up tackles and splash plays when the snaps are there, and even a slightly reduced role could still leave him as a useful fantasy starter if he remains heavily involved near the line of scrimmage. The key is that my DB15 ranking is still below the current expert consensus and likely well below where he is going in many drafts. So I am not necessarily trying to beat the market to Battle. I am trying to be realistic about the downside while still acknowledging that the projection may be too cautious if he keeps the job.

Bottom line: Battle is not an avoid because he lacks fantasy upside. He is an avoid if drafters price him like last year’s production is guaranteed to repeat. I have him above the projection because there is still a strong fantasy outcome if he holds off Dugger, but below the market because the job-security risk is real.

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