2011 IDP Dynasty Buy Low/Sell High: Week 5
Written By: Eric Olinger
You would think that by Week 5 we would know by now who the IDP Beasts were going to be for the year and who are pretenders. But 4 weeks in and guys that were taken early that were supposed to produce like Hawthorne, Pozluszny, Ruud, Beason, and Timmons are either hurt or being out produced on a weekly basis by guys that barely graced a Sleeper List let alone LB1 territory. DB’s are scoring LB types of numbers LB’s are scoring DL types of numbers and we’re stuck trying to dissect it. In a Dynasty League it’s even harder because you have to weigh the options as far as the future, not just this year. In a Dynasty League you can’t just go dropping Timmons or Poz because they have the pedigree to end the year Top 5 at the position, hell, they’re talented enough to pull out of this shit heap of a nose dive they’re in now and still end up Top 10. At least Poz responded with an IDP stud-like week this past week, forcing us to keep hope alive.
You would think that by Week 5 we would know by now who the IDP Beasts were going to be for the year and who are pretenders. But 4 weeks in and guys that were taken early that were supposed to produce like Hawthorne, Pozluszny, Ruud, Beason, and Timmons are either hurt or being out produced on a weekly basis by guys that barely graced a Sleeper List let alone LB1 territory. DB’s are scoring LB types of numbers LB’s are scoring DL types of numbers and we’re stuck trying to dissect it. In a Dynasty League it’s even harder because you have to weigh the options as far as the future, not just this year. In a Dynasty League you can’t just go dropping Timmons or Poz because they have the pedigree to end the year Top 5 at the position, hell, they’re talented enough to pull out of this shit heap of a nose dive they’re in now and still end up Top 10. At least Poz responded with an IDP stud-like week this past week, forcing us to keep hope alive.
BUY
Ryan Kerrigan- OLB- Washington Redskins
Simply a game changer, he’s a big play waiting to happen. He’s had a sack in each of the past 3 games while improving his tackle numbers in each. Originally drafted to compliment Orakpo, he’s developed so quickly that he might be the better pass rusher of the two. Another boom or bust player, Defensive Coordinator Jim Haslett has a proven track record of being and staying aggressive. He has the same kind of potential of Clay Matthews and a higher ceiling that Mario Williams at the position in my opinion.
Navarro Bowman- ILB- San Francisco 49ers
The only thing keeping him from leading the league in tackles is the man playing next to him, Patrick Willis. Bowman has to feel like he’s still playing Big Ten ball like his days at Penn State because the 49ers are playing a grind it out smash mouth style of football that keeps the games low scoring and close to the final gun. Bowman has taken the reigns from the departed Takeo Spikes and actually improved the defense. Playing next to Willis, the Niners have the best duo of ILBs in the league for MANY years to come. If he’s available now, get him because you might not get another shot for a long time.
Daryl Washington- ILB- Arizona Cardinals
Finally healthy, owners may be getting frustrated with the lack of production from him. But he has talent and he’s a leader on the defense. He has the ability and opportunities to be every bit as good as any 3-4 ILB in the game. This week is the week to make your move. With a game coming up against Donovan McNabb, Adrian Peterson, and the Vikings, he’s going to see a ton of tackle opportunities. His price could go up substantially by this time next week.
Will Smith- DE- New Orleans Saints
Coming off his suspension, Smith has played well in both games back. He had 2 sacks last week and he could be a guy that is still available in your league. Especially if people in your league only pay attention to the people listed at the top of the free agent list. He’s got DL1 talent that can be picked up on the cheap and he actually gets a fair amount of tackles for a lineman. That’s a nice bonus, so you never get completely shut out and he has a nice stretch of games ahead that favor pass rushing DLs.
Aldon Smith- OLB- San Francisco 49ers
I’m only listing him because we’ve been getting a lot of questions about him. He was a guy I listed in my week 1 article. Not much has changed since then other than he had a breakout game this past week against the Eagles with a 4-1-1.5 line. He is strictly a pass rush specialist. His stats for the year are…4-1-1.5. So he’s not quite ready to be added except in the deepest of leagues. He has potential as he has favorably been compared to DeMarcus Ware. The man is the truth and will one day be a household name in Vic Fangio’s defense, unfortunately, it won’t be today. I love the upside though.
Sell
James Harrison- OLB- Pittsburgh Steelers
He’s made the list before, but I’m sticking to my guns here. Now injured with a broken orbital socket, he’s expected to miss the next several weeks. On a defense that suddenly got old overnight, he has managed 23 total tackles and 2 sacks through the 4 games he’s appeared in. Luckily for him him his eventual replacement, Jason Worilds, is also dinged up and won’t be able to Wally Pipp him out of playing time. Instead, the Steelers will be moving Timmons in to Harrison’s spot for the time being. In my opinion, he’s not worth holding onto through the injury.
Mario Williams- OLB- Houston Texans
Another repeat appearance. Now is the perfect time to sell this one trick pony. In big play leagues that reward highly for sacks and don’t really focus on the tackle numbers, I can understand holding on. But he has had 2 good games and 2 stinkers. He has shown that he can still manhandle weak opponents with speed by racking up 2 sacks in each game against the God-awful lines of Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. He has a lot more 1 and 2 tackle games ahead of him than 2 sack games, however. His stats on the year are 9 total tackles with nearly half of them going for sacks, 4. He’s literally an all or nothing guy.
London Fletcher- ILB- Washington Redskins
Maybe Albert Haynesworth shouldn’t have been the only one against Haslett’s switch to the 3-4. Fletcher, the man that time forgot, has been a total non-factor in this system. Once a perennial leader in tackles he doesn’t get the same opportunities as before. With Rocky McIntosh playing better, they put a pretty big dent in each other’s stats. And now with Orakpo and Kerrigan bringing the heat hardcore, they are actually dropping into coverage more. In dynasty leagues, it’s hard to pull the plug on an old friend but he’s just suffering now. Let him go be with Jesus.
Rey Maualuga- MLB- Cincinnati Bengals
Do any of you have that friend that you loan money to knowing you’re never going to see it again, but he swears he’s good for it this time and against your better judgement you loan it to him anyways? That’s how I feel about Maualuga. Every friggin’ year I want to believe the hype on this guy and how this year it’s different because Dhani Jones is off saving rain forests and feeding poor African babies. Well it really is going to be different this time. I’m done waiting for you to be more than mediocre.
DeMeco Ryans- ILB- Houston Texans
The guy has talent but has become a better NFL linebacker than fantasy linebacker. The Texans have transformed into a legitimate Top 5 Defense and they just lack tackle opportunities. It’s not the old days where a lead was established by the other team and the last half of the game was spent running the ball to kill the clock. Now the Texans come out build a lead and force opponents to throw, leaving little opportunity for Ryans and Cushing.
Thanks for reading! Comments, suggestions or questions are welcome below or by email at ericolinger@idpguru.com. You can also follow my active Twitter feed @Olinger3781.
Last Updated: October 6, 2011