2023 IDP Prop Bets: Week 6
Given I’ve been running a Fantasy Football IDP website for 13+ years and finished #1 in overall IDP accuracy in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 according to FantasyPros.com, it made sense to try my hand at IDP Prop Betting as those become more prevalent across sportsbooks.
Each week, I will update this post with new bets. Keep in mind, I usually post my thoughts to Twitter first so make sure and give me a follow there to get betting (and all other IDP-related) updates in the quickest fashion. For the time being, I’ll be making my bets available for free.
Note: Units are the percentage of your overall bankroll (e.g. 1 unit equals betting 1% of your overall bankroll)
2023 SEASON-TO-DATE PROP BET RESULTS
WEEK 6
Bet: Eric Kendricks Under 4.5 Assists
Odds: -125
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Ravens @ Browns- Monday @ 7:15pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.25
Rationale: Posted to Twitter
WEEK 4
Bet: Grant Delpit Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -125
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Ravens @ Browns- Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: We took the over on Delpit’s Week 2 tackle line which he cleared and the same rationale applies to the bet this week. As mentioned in the previous write-up, Delpit is playing much more frequently close to the line of scrimmage under new Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz (60-75% of his snaps on average). This is a result of schematic changes but also because the Browns linebacking crew is fairly devoid of talent and Delpit is one of the team’s best run defenders. He’s cleared this line in two of three games this season and the game in which he fell short was in a bottom six tackle matchup against the Titans last week. He squares off against a Ravens team that have historically been a top tackle matchup for defenders and are top 10 so far this season in tackles allowed to safeties. The line opened at +110/+120 on most books and has already moved to -125, so I’d get in on this before the juice gets even higher.
Result: Loss
WEEK 3
Bet: Kenneth Murray Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -150
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Chargers @ Vikings – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: Rationale posted to Twitter
Result: Win
Bet: Devin Lloyd Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -125
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Texans @ Jaguars – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.25
Rationale: After losing his starting job to Chad Muma during the middle of last season, Lloyd is now back in a full-role in 2023 as he’s played 99% of the team’s defensive snaps through two games. In games in which he played 90%+ of the snaps last season, he cleared this line in 9 of 11 games (82%) and surpassed this tackle line in both games against the Texans last year with 11 tackles in Week 5 and 6 tackles in Week 17 (despite only playing 60% of the snaps). Houston has given up the 2nd most tackles to linebackers so far this season. The odds (for IDP props) aren’t bad either, so I feel good about the 1.25 unit bet here.
Result: Loss
Bet: Harrison Smith Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Cowboys @ Cardinals- Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.15
Rationale: Smith cleared this line in 10 of 14 games last season (71%) and has a great matchup against the Chargers who have been a goldmine for safety tackle production so far this season. In Week 1, Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliot put up 14 and 13 tackles against them, respectively. And last week, Kevin Byard put up 12 tackles (the Titans other typical starting safety was out with an injury). Despite underachieving this season, Smith actually hit the over on this line just last week with 6 total tackles in a similar/attractive matchup against the Eagles (despite missing three tackles). Under new Defensive Coordinator, Smith’s “sweet spot” usage (box/slot/DL) is actually way up this year at 65% compared to 42% in 2022 and he’s playing less deep safety (although the tackle production so far would have you think teammate Cameron Bynum has the more advantageous role). I truly think this line should be a full tackle higher but is suppressed due to Smith’s slow start to the 2023 season. Admittedly, he may have lost a step, but Smith has been an extremely active producer throughout his 12-year career and I believe he still has enough in the tank to muster at least a 5 tackle performance given all the opportunity he should see. And I like that the odds aren’t too bad given how crazy the juice has gotten on a lot of IDP prop bets recently.
Result: Loss
Bet: K’Von Wallace Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Cowboys @ Cardinals- Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Wallace has exceeded this line in both of his first games this season with 7 tackles in Week 1 in a part-time role and 8 tackles in Week 2, which led the team. With Budda Baker on IR, he’s now taking on a 100% snap role and played a ridiculous 65% of his snaps in the box which was the most of any safety last week. The Cowboys have been a great matchup for safeties giving up the 2nd most tackles to safeties last year and are 4th in that category so far this season. The Dallas offense should be able to control the time of possession in this one leading to a lot of defensive snaps for the Cardinals defense as well. The Arizona home stat crew is also 8th most generous in terms of total tackles issued per opportunity for it’s home IDPs. Throw in the plus odds here and we have a very attractive over prop.
Result: Win
WEEK 2
Bet: Grant Delpit Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -140
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Game: Browns @ Steelers – Monday @ 7:15pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.4
Rationale: Delpit cleared this line in 12 of 17 games (71%) last season. More importantly, under new Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz, he’s being deployed much more often close to the line of scrimmage this season – in Week 1 he saw nearly 75% of his snaps in the box or in the slot. The Browns have perhaps the most suspect linebacking crew in the league, so this usage is not surprising nor is the fact that Delpit led the team in tackles with 8 last week. The Steelers haven’t been an overly strong tackle matchup for opposing defenders but I’m still surprised this line isn’t 5.5 at minimum (or even 6.5) coming off that strong performance last week and Delpit’s new/more productive role. Pittsburgh’s home stat crew does issue the 4th most tackles per opportunity to opposing defenders so that’s a nice little bonus as well.
Result: Win
Bet: Vonn Bell Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Saints @ Panthers – Monday @ 6:15pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Yes, Bell only had 3 total tackles in the opener. BUT, he played nearly ~40% of his snaps in the box and he will be playing against his old team in the Saints (I believe that typically adds a little extra motivation). Bell has been a fairly active run defender throughout his career and his line is typically at 5.5, so we are getting a bit of value here due to the down Week 1. Throw in the plus odds and this makes for one of the better one unit IDP prop bets of the week.
Result: Win
Bet: Kyle Dugger Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -140
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Dolphins @ Patriots – Sunday @ 7:20pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Posted to Twitter
Result: Loss
Bet: Jamin Davis Under 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Broncos @ Commanders – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Posted to Twitter
Result: Win
Bet: Jayron Kearse Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Jets @ Cowboys – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Kearse racked up 7 tackles last week in a blowout game against the Giants in which he only really played three quarters. He exceeded this tackle line 70% of the time last year and I expect him to see slight bump in his normal playing time and be even more active in the box against the Jets with Donovan Wilson not playing. The Jets aren’t a top tier tackle matchup for safeties but they are slightly above average. The juice isn’t too bad on this one either, so I feel good laying one unit on this bet.
Result: Loss
Bet: Devin White Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Bears @ Bucs – Sunday@ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: White was all over the field last week and led the team in tackles with 12. He’s admittedly been a bit boom/or bust throughout his career but I think the Bears try and get back to basics and run a lot in this game to take some pressure off Fields. Plus, I would imagine the Bucs use White to spy on Fields throughout the game further increasing his chances of surpassing this line. Either way, this line is a bit low for White especially coming off a big tackle game.
Result: Loss
Bet: Julian Love Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -145
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Seahawks @ Lions– Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Love spent a significant amount of time in the box last week at 40% which helped him to 9 total tackles. Granted, the Seahawks saw a whopping 81 tackles on defense. We aren’t likely to see that high of snaps again but the Lions have historically been a good matchup for tackles since Dan Campbell took over and I Love have been an above average tackle producer throughout his career. I don’t like this one quite as much as the White bet (especially with the higher juice) but still willing to go one unit given the IDP betting lines this week aren’t that great.
Result: Win
WEEK 1
Bet: Adrian Amos Under 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -145
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Bills @ Jets – Monday @ 7:15pm CST
Recommended Units: 2.5
Rationale: Posted to Twitter here
Result: Win
Bet: Jason Pinnock Over 3.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -133
Sportsbook: Caesars
Game: Cowboys @ Giants – Sunday @ 7:20pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: This line seems low to me for a starting safety that’s expected to receive 100% snap share and has been heavily touted as a “breakout candidate” at his position by multiple team members. Additionally, the Cowboys gave up the 2nd most tackles to opposing safeties last season and the Giants home stat crew was the 7th most generous in issuing total tackles per opportunity to their players. The odds went from -130 to -150 on DraftKings already this morning but you can still find this at -133 at Caesars or -135 at Barstool.
Result: Win
Bet: Kyzir White Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Cardinals @ Commanders – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: Along with Ernest Jones, White is another LB I’m really high on this season. He follows Jonathan Gannon from Philadelphia to Arizona. White will call the defensive plays and will be the team’s sole every-down, off-the-ball linebacker (Gannon runs a lot of one-LB sets) and has shown he’s capable of strong tackle production when given a full-time role (143 total tackles back in 2021 with the Chargers). This specific LB role has been a highly productive one in Gannon’s scheme (see TJ Edwards and his 159 total tackles last year with the Eagles) as he utilizes a lot of zone looks which creates a ton of tackle opportunity for the linebackers as they clean up a lot of underneath dump offs from the offense. Additionally, Washington was #1 in the league in total tackles allowed to LBs last season and their stat crew issued the 2nd most total tackles per opportunities to opposing defenses in 2022. With Kyler Murray out for this game, the Cardinals defense should see a lot of snaps. Throw in the plus odds we are getting and I’m really liking this one. For those that are riskier, I wouldn’t blame you if you even went 2 units on this bet.
Result: Win
Bet: Jack Sanborn Under 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +110
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Packers @ Bears – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 3
Rationale: Sanborn took over the starting MLB role last season after Roquan Smith was traded after Week 8. In the five games he started before going down with a season-ending injury, he averaged a ridiculous 11 total tackles per game. This said, the Bears brought in and paid two linebackers handsomely this off-season in Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards and they will team’s two primary linebackers, leaving Sanborn as the third linebacker when they run those sets. Although the Bears deployed an above average amount of 3-LB sets in 2022, that number was still only 35%. So that’s a reasonable expectation for Sanborn’s snap share in this game. The league average in offensive snaps faced is around 62 which means we can expect Sanborn to play around 22 snaps. This means he would have to have a ridiculous tackle rate of 27% to hit the over on this line (getting a tackle essentially every 4 snaps). The most elite linebackers last year (Roquan Smith, Nick Bolton) were only in the 16% range and even if you assume Sanborn keeps up his ridiculous tackle efficiency from that five-game sample size in 2022 (19.4%), he would still fall short by a couple tackles. Additionally, Noah Sewell was battling Sanborn for the starting SLB in training camp, so he could lose some snaps to him as well in this contest. Plus, the Packers were not a very good matchup for LB tackles last season (22nd) and the Bears home stat crew was not generous to it’s player in terms of total tackles issued either (29th). I think this is another example of the books largely basing this line on Sanborn’s elite production last year and not accounting strongly enough for his significantly reduced role in 2023. As an added cherry on top, we are also getting plus odds here, so I’m comfortable placing 3 units on this bet.
Result: Win
Bet: Ernest Jones Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Rams @ Seahawks – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Jones is one of my top IDP sleepers this season. With Bobby Wagner now back with the Seahawks, Jones will assume the top starting linebacker role for the Rams. This role has been super productive from a tackle standpoint given how much zone coverage the defense plays (which is the most beneficial scheme for LB tackle production) and how many 1-LB sets they employ. Add in the fact that Jones was top 7 in tackle efficiency (15.8%) in a part-time role last season and this defense figures to see a lot more field time in 2023, you have the makings of a tackle machine. This week’s matchup against Seattle will likely be a good one as well given they were top 8 in tackles allowed to linebackers in 2022. I contemplated another 2 unit bet, but given this one has more juice on it than Werner, I’m recommending this as a strong one unit bet.
Result: Win
Bet: Pete Werner Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Titans @ Saints – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: Before suffering an ankle injury in Week 9 which cost him most of the remainder of the 2022 season, Werner eclipsed this tackle line in 7 of his first 8 games (88% hit rate). The Titans were a top 10 tackle matchup last season given their heavy utilization of Derrick Henry, so Werner should see plenty of opportunity in this game. I think the books are a couple tackles too low on this one as they are probably just looking at Werner’s overall tackle numbers from year ago and not factoring in that he missed a large chunk of the second half/saw his playing time reduced upon his return to create space for Kaden Ellis (who is now with Atlanta). I like this one for two units.
Result: Win
Bet: Monty Rice Under 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -150
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Titans @ Saints – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 4
Rationale: Posted to Twitter here
Result: Win