2009 Fantasy Football IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 14

Welcome to The IDP Guru’s “Weekly IDP Waiver Wire Pickups.” I had a fairly successful week last week coming in with a successful prediction rate of 61%. And I’m looking to improve upon that percentage this week.

FYI, I’ve recently added another section to my column called “The Untouchables.” This part of the column lists players who are owned in a majority of leagues (Source: ESPN.com) and are therefore not even worth mentioning in IDP Waiver Wire Articles. Because what’s the point in suggesting players who probably aren’t even available on your waiver wire! Obviously, the players on “The Untouchables” list will change from week to week depending on their ownership.

Here are my IDP Waiver Wire recommendations for Week 14:

“The Untouchables”:
Jared Allen (93%)
Julius Peppers (66%)
Elvis Dumervil (66%)
Trent Cole (62%)
Justin Tuck (61%)
Mario Williams (57%)
Osi Umenyiora (51%)
Robert Mathis (51%)
Andre Carter (47%)
Dwight Freeney (41%)

1. LDE Calais Campbell – Most of the fantasy attention on the Cardinals defensive line this year has gone to RDE Darnell Dockett. However, Campbell has put up similar numbers to Dockett and he also has the pleasure of going against 49ers RT Adam Snyder, who couldn’t block my Grandmother.

2. WLB Trevor Scott – Scott is a sneaky play. He was moved from his DE position to WLB in Week 12 against the Cowboys and has remained there ever since. In the two games at that position, he has 9 total tackles and 3 sacks. It looks as though he will remain there this week as well. He’s got a good chance for a sack this week against the Redskins and should put up good tackles numbers (for a DL) as well. FYI, most league management systems lock in players at the position they start at in the beginning of the year and therefore Scott will still be listed as DE in most systems. What a steal!

3. RDE Randy Starks – The former 3rd round pick of the Tennessee Titans has performed admirably this season registering 6 sacks so far. He should be able to increase that number this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

4. LDE Patrick Kerney – Kerney was my “Lock of the Week” last week and he disapearred off the face off the earth (0-0-0). He has a chance to redeem himself this week against the Texans and their shabby offensive line.

5. DE/WLB David Bowens – If Bowens qualifies in your league as a DE, he’s probably already off of your waiver wire, but if he’s available, I would snatch him up. He’s plays that hybrid DE/LB position (e.g. Demarcus Ware, Joey Porter, etc.) and therefore gets a good mix of tackles and sacks. He has a great matchup this week against the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, who holds on to the ball WAY too long (and seems to have the worst luck regarding TVs).

*The IDP Guru’s Lock of the Week*
RDE Greg “Stylez” White – You have to love a guy who legally changes his first name to “Stylez.” You also have to love that he plays the Jets this week, who have given up more points to opposing defensive lineman then any other team in the NFL (including the Packers). Look for Mr. White to give Mark Sanchez a couple of “style” tips this week, if you know what I mean. And I mean sack him.

“The Untouchables”:
Patrick Willis (98%)
James Harrison (95%)
Ray Lewis (82%)
Jon Beason (75%)
Barrett Rudd (72%)
London Fletcher (71%)
D.J. Williams (71%)
Brian Cushing (70%)
Demarcus Ware (69%)
Curtis Lofton (66%)
Kirk Morrison (64%)
David Harris (58%)
Demeco Ryans (56%)
Karlos Dansby (55%)

1. MLB Dhani Jones – Jones is very comparable to MLB Larry Foote. He consistently puts up 6-7 total tackles per week, but not much more. This week, however, may be a different story for Jones as he is facing Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have given up more fantasy points to opposing linebackers than any other team in the league. Look for Jones to have his best fantasy production of the season this week (8-11 total tackles).

2. RILB Jerod Mayo – Mayo was my “Lock of the Week” last week and he came through in a big way with 12 total tackles and a 1/2 sack. He consistently produces against run-heavy teams and he plays an extremely run-heavy team this week in the Carolina Panthers. I don’t expect Mayo to put up the same numbers he did last week, but he should have a solid game nonetheless.

3. LOLB LaMarr Woodley – This is my high risk/high reward suggestion this week. Woodley has been the Steelers most productive fantasy linebacker over the last 4 weeks by registering 6 sacks in that time period. He plays the Browns this week, and after an embarrassing loss to the Raiders at home last week, I expect the Steelers to come out full throttle and get after Browns QB Brady Quinn. If you’re in a league that rewards heavily for big plays, I would get Woodley in your lineup this week.

4. WLB Clint Session – Who’s accumulated the most fantasy points from the linebacker position over the last 7 weeks? Patrick Willis you say? Jon Beason you say? How about Clint Session. Yah, that Clint Session. Session has been a tackling machine this season and is surprisingly only owned in 22% of ESPN leagues. His matchup against Denver this week is marginal, but, at this point in the season, I consider Session to be pretty much “matchup independent.”

5. WLB Jamar Williams – Starting in place of the injured Lance Briggs last week, Williams put up 18 total tackles. You read correctly, 18 total tackles. And he’s got a great matchup this week in the Green Bay Packers. Watch the injury status of Briggs’ and if he’s listed as inactive, I would pick up Williams ASAP!

*The IDP Guru’s Lock of the Week*

MLB Justin Durant – If you only read my blog once in a great moon, you will still probably know that I am a big fan/believer in Justin Durant. I truly believe he is a Top 10 LB when healthy. He has struggled with injuries this season, but those concerns seem to have dissipated after his strong performance last week (6-0-1, INT, 1 TFL). Durant has a great matchup against the run-heavy Dolphins this week and should have a superb game.

“The Untouchables”:
Charles Woodson (68%)
Darren Sharper (59%)
Antrel Rolle (58%)
Eric Weddle (55%)
Oshiomogho Atogwe (55%)
Troy Polamalu (53%)
Roman Harper (53%)
Brandon Meriweather (53%)
Brian Dawkins (52%)
Ed Reed (51%)
Daniel Manning (51%)
Erik Coleman (51%)
Charles Tillman (50%)
Gibril Wilson (49%)
Yeremiah Bell (46%)
Antoine Bethea (46%)

1. SS Tanard Jackson – As I mentioned last week, I think Jackson is slightly overrated, but he did come through when he was suppose to last week. He has another good matchup this week against the Jets. With that being said, look for him to replicate his stat line from last week.

2. SS Quintin Mikell – I’m not a big fan of Mikell as he’s consistently let me down every time I’ve personally picked him up. But, he does play the Giants this week, who give up the most fantasy points to opposing safeties. And he has shown that he is capable of putting up a large amount of tackles. He should be a good play this week.

3. CB Richard Marshall – Marshall is often picked on by opposing teams because of his lack of coverage skills and therefore usually puts up decent tackle numbers against pass-heavy teams. With that said, he will have his hands full this week trying to cover the Patriots deadly WR combination of Moss and Welker. Marshall should be in line for 6-8 solo tackles.

4. SS Jordan Babineaux – Babineaux has come on like a big dog the last 4 weeks. What I especially like is that he is doing it with a combination of consistent tackling and big plays. He’s got a pretty good matchup in the Texans this week, so don’t hesitate to put Babineaux in your lineup.

5. WLB Bryan Scott – As long as the Bills continue to play Scott at WLB, I will continue to recommend him. You can’t beat the value of having a LB that qualifies at S. Also, he has the Chiefs this week, who are a surprisingly good matchup for opposing fantasy linebackers.

*The IDP Guru’s Lock of the Week*

SS Melvin Bullitt – This guy has quietly put up 39 total tackles the last 5 weeks and has filled in very nicely for the oft-injured Bob Sanders. He faces the Broncos this week, who have given up the 2nd most points to opposing safeties the last 7 weeks. Sounds like a great combination to me! I expect Bullitt to generate 8 or more total tackles this week and should be a fairly solid play for the rest of the season.

I hope you found this article to be helpful!

Please feel free to leave comments, questions, suggestions, or derogatory remarks!

Also, every Wednesday, I write an “IDP Starts and Sits” article for Top Fantasy Football. Make sure to stop over and check it out for more IDP advice!

Thanks!