2022 IDP Prop Bets
Given I’ve been running a Fantasy Football IDP website for 10+ years and finished #1 in overall IDP accuracy in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 according to FantasyPros.com, I thought it was time to try my hand at IDP Prop Betting as those become more prevalent across some sportsbooks.
Each week, I will update this post with new bets. Keep in mind, I usually post my thoughts to Twitter first so make sure and give me a follow there to get betting (and all other IDP-related) updates in the quickest fashion. For the time being, I’ll be making my bets available for free.
Note: Units are the percentage of your overall bankroll (e.g. 1 unit equals betting 1% of your overall bankroll)
WEEK 13
Bet: Jaylon Smith Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Commanders @ Giants – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Found on Twitter here
Bet: DeAndre Houston-Carson Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -104
Sportsbook: Caesars
Game: Packers @ Bears – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Houston-Carson racked up nine tackles last week in his lone start of the year filling in for the injured Jaquan Brisker. He also exceeded this tackle line in all four of his starts last season (Weeks 7, 8,9, and 11). With Brisker out again with a concussion and Eddie Jackson now on injured reserve, DHC will be locked into an every snap safety role this week and should see a healthy amount of box/slot snaps (56.2% combined last week across those two alignments). The Packers allow the fifth most total tackles to opposing safeties with at least one safety eclipsing this tackle line in every week this season. Aaron Rodgers always seems to play well against the Bears, so their offense should have an advantage in time of possession in this game. Lastly, the Bears stat crew is the eighth most generous to home defenders in terms of total tackles issued per opportunity. This is a solid one unit bet especially at nearly even odds.
WEEK 11
Bet: Nick Bolton Over 8.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +100
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Chiefs @ Chargers – Sunday @ 715pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Bolton impressively cleared this line in each of his first seven games; however, he has missed this line in the last two weeks with 3 and 8 total tackles in Weeks 9 and 10, respectively. It’s important to recognize both of those performances came against bad matchups though. This said, I think we are getting good value here because of that recency bias. The matchup this week against the Chargers is as good as it gets for this situation as the team is currently giving up the most tackles to opposing inside linebackers. Additionally, the Chargers stat crew is the second most generous in the league when it comes to total tackles issued to opposing defenders. I like Bolton to get right in this game and feel good amount placing one unit here, especially at even odds.
WEEK 5
Bet: Caden Sterns Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Colts @ Broncos – Thursday @ 715pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Posted to Twitter here
Bet: Josey Jewell Over 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -130
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Colts @ Broncos – Thursday @ 715pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Posted to Twitter here
Bet: Zaven Collins Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -110
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Eagles @ Cardinals – Sunday @ 325pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Collins has exceeded this line in three of his first four games this season. The game in which he fell short, he only saw 35 defensive snaps and missed some snaps due to an injury. Given how well the Eagles have been playing this year offensively, I would fully expect Collins to see an above average amount of defensive snaps in Week 5. Philadelphia has been a top 5 tackle matchup for inside linebackers and top 8 for all linebackers in general. The stat crew in Arizona is pretty stingy in terms of total tackles issued per opportunity for visiting teams but the bottom line is this total is a couple too low for an every snap linebacker with little front 7 tackle competition against a strong matchup. We are also getting relatively good odds on this for an IDP prop bet.
WEEK 4
Bet: David Long Jr. Over 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Titans @ Colts – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Long has only gone over this total tackle line once this year and has definitely underperformed fantasy expectations with just a 5% tackle rate. However, he’s an every snap player going against the Colts team who have given up the most tackles to off-the-ball linebackers by a wide margin this year and their stat crew was fairly favorable (10th) in terms of issuing tackles to opposing defenses last year. Additionally, the other Titans ILB Zach Cunningham is out for this game which should open up more opportunity for Long as I wouldn’t expect undrafted six-year career reserve Dylan Cole (Cunningham’s replacement) to eat up a lot of tackles. Long had 9TT when these two teams met last year and if he doesn’t match that in this game, it’s probably a sign his emergence as a top 25 fantasy linebacker last year was a fluke. This is somewhat of a “gut call” but I think Long Jr. “gets right” in this game and has his best production of the year and cashes for us.
Bet: Marcus Epps Under 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -129
Sportsbook: Caesars
Game: Jaguars @ Eagles – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Epps had a nice Week 1 with 10 total tackles against the Lions; however those stats were inflated by a very strong matchup for safeties and likely an anamoly now that we have a few weeks of data to look at. In the two weeks since, his numbers have fallen back more into the expected range with 6 and 4 total tackles, respectively. He’s spending nearly 70% of his snaps deep as the Eagles play a lot of two-high safety which makes it difficult for those players to produce tackles at a consistently high rate. Additionally, the Jaguars have been a bottom six tackle matchup for opposing safeties with only one safety exceeding this tackle line so far this season and that was DB1 Derwin James last week. The Eagles stat crew isn’t very generous when it comes to total tackles issued per opportunity either and we could also see a beneficial game script if Philadelphia continues to control the ball offensively, so I like this bet for one unit.
Bet: Marlon Humphrey Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Bills @ Ravens- Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Humphrey has exceed this tackle line in each of the first three weeks (7TT, 7TT, 5TT) and has a fantastic matchup against the pass-heavy Bills team that has allowed the 6th most tackles to opposing cornerbacks so far this season. Five cornerbacks have notched five or more total tackles already against Buffalo in three games and Humphrey is one of the better tackle-producing corners in the league, so this is a solid one unit bet especially with plus odds.
Bet: Drue Tranquill Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -160
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Chargers @ Texans- Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: This bet is similar to Julian Love’s 4.5 TT line last week. I really like it and the line is way too low but there is heavy juice on it. That said, I’m only willing to go 1 unit. The Chargers entered the year with a strong rotation of players at linebacker; however in recent weeks, Tranquill has begun to separate himself from the other off-the-ball linebackers with his strong play. This has resulted in his playing time increasing from 60% in Week 1 to 84% and 78% the last two weeks. He’s compiled 7 and 11 total tackles the past two weeks and even eclipsed this total in Week 1 with 5 total tackles when he played just a little over half the snaps.
Bet: Josey Jewel Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Broncos @ Raiders – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Jewell was a player I recommended as a “sleeper” in my 2022 IDP Draft Guide. His value got a bit derailed due to an injury suffered before the start of the season that caused him to miss the team’s first two regular season games. However, he was back in action last week and played 95% of the team’s snaps in route to 9 total tackles and a sack. He gets the Raiders this week who have historically been a favorable matchup for opposing inside linebackers in terms of tackles. They haven’t faced many true every-down linebackers so far this year, but the two they have in Zaven Collins and David Long (both underperformers this year) have put up 8 and 7 total tackles, respectively. Jewell has been a more efficient tackler than those two and should see a full complement of snaps in Week 4, so I like for him to put up a similar total tackle line to last week.
Bet: Jayon Brown Under 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -150
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Broncos @ Raiders – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: The juice is high on this one but I still think it’s well worth a 2 unit bet. Denzel Perryman is finally off the injury report and will make his season debut in Week 4. Inside linebacker Divine Deablo has been calling the defensive plays and was apparently slated for an every-down role prior to Perryman’s injury, so I believe it will be Brown that heads to the bench. Given Perryman’s been out a while, he probably won’t be full-time right away, leaving some snaps for Brown. But I wouldn’t expect Brown to play more than 40-50% of the snaps at maximum. Given that he’s only hit this line once in the three games he’s started (and averaged 75%+ of the snaps in that span), he will be hard pressed to come close to this line with what is likely a significantly reduced role in Week 4.
Bet: Lorenzo Carter Under 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -145
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Browns @ Falcons- Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: Carter is a relative unknown and for fairly good reason as he’s never exceeded five total sacks or 45 total tackles in a season during his five-year career. He’s only exceeded this tackle line 8 out of 52 times in his entire career (15%) and it took him until Week 17 to hit this all of last season. He has seen a bump in playing time this year since signing with the Falcons but even with that increased snap share percentage up to 83%, he’s only managed 2 total tackles in each of his first three games. Maybe the books know something we don’t here, but I’m assuming this is just a semi-bad line, so I’m willing to get to two units on this bet.
WEEK 3
Bet: Donovan Wilson Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Cowboys @ Giants – Monday @ 7:15pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: With Jayron Kearse out with a knee injury, Donovan Wilson has stepped into his place at strong safety for the Cowboys. He saw 100% of the snaps in Week 2 and spent a whopping 64% of his time up “in the box” near the line of scrimmage. This helped him generate a team-high 8 total tackles against the Bengals. The Giants stat crew has long been one of the most generous in terms of total tackles issued per tackle opportunity (ranking #1 in the category in each of the last two seasons) and so far on the year, the G-Men have allowed the 10th most tackles to opposing safeties with Kevin Byard and Xavier Woods racking up 12 and 10 total tackles, respectively. I like Wilson for 7-8 total tackles in this game and am placing one unit on this plus odds line.
WEEK 2
Bet: Mykal Walker Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Falcons @ Rams – Sunday @ 3:05pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: We are going back to this same line after it hit last week. Although Walker barely cashed last week with six tackles, he did so facing just 19 total rushing attempts from the Saints. The Rams haven’t historically been a great matchup for tackle production among linebackers but I think the they come out and dominate the offensive time of possession this week after getting embarrassed in their season opener in primetime against the Bills. Walker will play every snap (barring injury) and should be able to put up at least six total tackles in this contest.
Bet: Kyle Dugger Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Patriots @ Steelers – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: Despite the likely poor matchup, this line seems particularly low to me especially with plus odds. Dugger is essentially a linebacker in the Patriots scheme and had a strong enough snap share of 85% last week. Additionally, he was one of the few bright spots on the defense last week with a 85 run grade which was second highest among all safeties. Dugger has eclipsed this in 11 of his last 14 games (78% hit rate) in which he played 30 or more snaps. The Steelers stat crew issues out the 7th most tackles per opportunity and, although Adrian Phillips looks like he will play, he’s not 100% and that should hopefully open up even more opportunity for Dugger.
Bet: Devin Lloyd Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Colts @ Jaguars – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: Lloyd led the team in tackles last week with 11 and looked fairly solid in his NFL debut (he was great in run defense but had some coverage lapses). Despite still working his way back from injury, he played 90% of the defensive snaps, so it appears he has an every-down role locked up and we should only see that participation rate stay flat or even increase a little bit this week. I expect a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and significant ball control from the Colts offense which should help give Lloyd more than enough opportunity to eclipse this tackle line. For perspective, the Colts allowed 28 total tackles combined to the Texans’ two every-down linebackers last week and, although that game went a full five quarters to help inflate those numbers, it’s an illustration of the positive matchup this week for Lloyd.
Bet: Dre Greenlaw Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Seahawks @ 49ers- Sunday @ 3:05pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: I think this line is artificially low due to Greenlaw coming off a very mediocre five total tackle game last week against the Bears. However, since he become a full-time player back in Week 6 of 2020, he had surpassed this tackle line in 11 out of 12 games (92%) in which he didn’t leave the game with an injury up until last week’s dud. They are expecting heavy rain for this game, so there will likely be a lot of runs which should help a lot with tackle opportunity. I thought about going with two units on this but Talanoa Hufanga’s emergence as a “box” safety on the team has me tempering expectations a bit for Greenlaw. But I still really like this bet for one unit.
Bet: Leighton Vander Esch Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -140
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Bengals @ Cowboys – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: With Keanu Neal gone and Micah Parsons spending a lot of time on the edge these days, LVE is seeing a fairly significant bump in playing time. He saw 85% of the defense snaps in Week 1 in route to a team-high nine total tackles. With Dak out and Cowboys offense now expected to be a bottom five unit for the until he returns, expect Dallas’ defense to see a lot of field time. The Bengals were one of the best matchups for inside linebackers last year and that carried over into Week 1 this year. I have Vander Esch projected closer to the 8-10 total tackle range this week.
Bet: Quay Walker Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Bears @ Packers – Sunday @ 7:20pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Walker had 8 total tackles and looked great prior to exiting with an injury last week in the third quarter. He should be in for 80%+ of the snaps tonight and I like him to surpass this line tonight.
Bet: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -140
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Vikings @ Eagles – Sunday @ 7:20pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: CGJ exceeded this line with five solo tackles last week against the Lions on a 97% snap share. Although Marcus Epps got all the fantasy attention by leading the team with 10 total tackles, he’s the deep safety in this scheme. CGJ spent nearly half his time “in the box” or in the “slot (40% box/10% slot) in Week 1 and therefore is the better tackle-producing option of the two. I like his chances of at least five tackles against Dalvin Cook and the Vikings this week who have been a slightly above-average matchup for safeties in terms of tackles allowed.
WEEK 1
Bet: Neville Hewitt Under 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -130
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Colts @ Texans – Sunday @ 12:00pm CST
Recommended Units: 5
Rationale: Although Hewitt is technically a starter, he doesn’t play in nickel subpackages. So he will only see the field when the team is in their base 4-3 package and, although the Texans ran that package well above the league average, that still only happened about a third of the time in 2021. This said, I wouldn’t imagine Hewitt sees much more than 30% of the snaps this week unless Kirksey or Grugier-Hill get injured. Therefore, this 7.5 total tackle line is WAY TOO HIGH and I’m hammering this bet for my max of 5 units.
Bet: Leo Chenal Under 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -155
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Chiefs @ Cardinals – Sunday @ 3:30pm CST
Recommended Units: 4
Rationale: Very similar to the Hewitt bet rationale above, Chenal is not going to stay on the field during nickel subpackages. Given how much the Cardinals spread out their offense, the Chiefs may opt to have even more three-safety looks than normal. I doubt Chenal, a third-round rookie, sees more than 15-20% of the snaps in Week 1. Last night this bet was under 5.5 TT at +115 which I liked for a 5 unit max bet. However, the line moved this morning to under 6.5TT with heavy juice (-155), so I’m decreasing this bet down to a still robust 4 units. If this moves back closer to the original line, I will likely place another heavy-up bet. There are no guarantees in betting but this is a classic example of an early season IDP “broken line” (similar to last year with Blake Cashman and Nick Kwiatkowski).
Bet: T.J. Edwards Over 7.5 Total Tackles
Odds: -125
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Eagles @ Lions – Sunday @ 12:00pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Those that subscribe to my premium content know that I’ve been pounding the table for Edwards all draft season. The Eagles heavy use of Cover 2 schemes among their linebackers last year led to Edwards and Alex Singleton having the two highest tackle rates at the position in the entire league (19%). Edwards will be calling the defensive plays and has drawn praise from the coaches in the preseason establishing himself as the leader on defense. He exceeded this tackle line in six of his last nine games (67%) after becoming a full-time player. Although things change year over year, the Lions were one of the top tackle matchups for linebackers in 2021 and Edwards racked up 13 total tackles against them just last November. I feel good laying one unit on this and rooting on one of my top IDP sleepers of 2022.
Bet: Mykal Walker Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -130
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Saints @ Falcons – Sunday @ 12:00pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: Walker will be wearing the green dot for the Falcons defense and is likely to play close to every snap in Week 1 with Deion Jones beginning the season on injured reserve. Atlanta’s stat crew issued the second most total tackles per opportunity in 2021, only behind the Giants. This said, a more appropriate tackle projection for him would be in the 7-9 range, so we are getting great value with this line currently. Count me in for two units on this prop.
Bet: Alex Singleton Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -130
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Broncos @ Seahawks – Monday @ 7:20pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: With Josey Jewell inactive due to injury, Alex Singleton will start and will likely see a majority of the snaps as the team’s defensive play caller. Although he’s not a good NFL player, he did lead the league in tackle rate last year (20%) and has the added benefit of the Seattle Stat crew which issues the third most tackles per tackle opportunity. Seattle’s inability to control the ball offensively does worry me a bit, but their plays when on offense should be favorable for Singleton (e.g. lots of runs and short routes across the middle).
2022 SEASON-TO-DATE PROP BET RESULTS