2024 IDP Prop Bets

Given I’ve been running a Fantasy Football IDP website for 14+ years and finished #1 in overall IDP accuracy in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 according to FantasyPros.com, it made sense to try my hand at IDP Prop Betting as those become more prevalent across sportsbooks.

Each week, I will update this post with new bets. Keep in mind, I usually post my thoughts to Twitter first so make sure and give me a follow there to get betting (and all other IDP-related) updates in the quickest fashion. For the time being, I’ll be making my bets available for free.

Note: Units are the percentage of your overall bankroll (e.g. 1 unit equals betting 1% of your overall bankroll)

WEEK 1
Bet: Ivan Pace Jr. Under 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +100
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Vikings @ Giants – Sunday @ Noon CST
Recommended Units: 1

Rationale: Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of Pace and have advocated for him in IDP circles at varying points since he came into the league. However, Blake Cashman will be wearing the green dot thereby ensuring his every-down status for Week 1. Given that Vikings’ Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores almost exclusively featured only one full-time linebacker last season (often replacing what is traditionally a second linebacker in nickel subpackages with a third safety in Josh Metellus), Pace may very well not see a  significant increase in snaps versus 2023.

For perspective, in games in which Jordan Hicks (the Vikings’ LB1 last year) started and didn’t leave due to injury, Pace only average a 48% snap rate and only surpassed this tackle total line in 3 of 12 games (25% rate). And in one of those games, the Vikings uncharacteristically decided to play both Hicks and Pace as three-down players for the first time all season.

To be fair, no one really knows if Flores is going to continue with this the heavy-use of three safety looks from last year. But given how much the team likes Josh Metellus as well, I’m obviously banking on that they largely will.

Additionally, the Giants offense is expected to be near the bottom of the league talent-wise, so it’s unlikely the Vikings defense sees a high number of snaps. The New York stat crew was slightly below average in terms of giving out total tackles per opportunity to visiting teams last year as well.

The only other thing that gives me slight pause is Pace is a very efficient tackler – his 14.4% tackle frequency in 2023 was top 15 in the category for LBs. However, at even odds and a high tackle line, these are risks I’m willing to take. Sign me up for at least one unit on this bet.

Result: WIN

2024 SEASON-TO-DATE PROP BET RESULTS