2024 IDP Prop Bets

Given I’ve been running a Fantasy Football IDP website for 14+ years and finished #1 in overall IDP accuracy in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 according to FantasyPros.com, it made sense to try my hand at IDP Prop Betting as those become more prevalent across sportsbooks.

Each week, I will update this post with new bets. Keep in mind, I usually post my thoughts to Twitter first so make sure and give me a follow there to get betting (and all other IDP-related) updates in the quickest fashion. For the time being, I’ll be making my bets available for free.

Note: Units are the percentage of your overall bankroll (e.g. 1 unit equals betting 1% of your overall bankroll)

WEEK 4
Bet: Daiyan Henley Over 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds:-125
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Chiefs @ Chargers – Sunday @ 3:25 CST
Recommended Units: 1.25

Rationale: Henley looks like he’s going to be a centerpiece for the Chargers defense. He’s graded out as a top 10 linebacker this year according to Pro Football Focus and has especially excelled in pass coverage which is a key thing coaches look for in linebackers nowadays.

In his first game playing every-down for the team last week, he led the defense with 12 total tackles against an advantageous Pittsburgh matchup (they are allowing the 3rd most tackles to linebackers this season). With Junior Colson out again this week, Henley is locked in to an every-down role once again for Week 4 and gets another fantastic matchup for linebackers in the Chiefs who have allowed the second-most tackles to opposing linebackers so far in 2024. The only thing that gives me some pause is teammate Denzel Perryman has been extremely efficient (as always) in his tackle production. However, Henley’s tackle efficiency is at 12% which is top 5 as well among qualified Week 4 linebackers. The odds on this are actually reasonable given IDP prop bets tend to have heavier juice than offensive bets. I’m going to roll with another standard bet size to win one unit on this one.

Result: Loss

Bet: De’Vondre Campbell Under 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds:-119
Sportsbook: Caesars (But Available on other major Sportsbooks for -120 to -125)
Game: Patriots @ 49ers – Sunday @ 3:05 CST
Recommended Units: 1.19

Rationale: Campbell has failed to reach this tackle line in each of his first three games with the 49ers, registering just 5 tackles in each contest despite averaging 92% of the defensive snaps in that span. This has resulted in a well below tackle efficiency figure of ~5%. He’s now entering into his 9th season and has shown definite signs of slowing down, especially in coverage where Pro Football Focus grades him as the 56th linebacker out of 73 in that regard.

To this point, Campbell was actually replaced in the starting lineup by second-year player Dee Winters last week on the third defensive series. However, Winters aggravated an ankle injury after just six snaps and was forced to leave the game. This potential role change has seemed to fly under the radar with the sportsbooks.

Winters got in back-to-back limited practices to end the week and beat reports have stated that he is expected to play and perhaps even see starter snaps over Campbell. If this turns out to be the case, this line is way too high for a part-time guy that hasn’t come close to clearing this line in a full-time capacity so far in 2024.

Even if Campbell maintains a full-time role, the matchup against New England this week is mediocre as they’ve allowed the 16th most tackles to opposing linebackers, and if NE gets behind (which seems likely), there could be even less tackle opportunity than normal for the 49er linebackers. Additionally, the 49ers home stat crew is dead last in the league in terms of tackles issued to their home defenders per opportunity.

All this said, I really like this play and am at least betting it to win one unit. Given we aren’t 100% sure if Winters’ will be active and what is exact role will be, I’m being conservative here at locking in this bet at one unit for now to get some money down at advantaged odds. However, I would have no issues going up to 1.5 – 2 units if/once we get more definitive word on Winters being active and playing a larger role in Week 4 (but we would likely have to act fast as the books have been adjusting and closing IDP prop lines much quicker this season based on this sort of news).

Result: Win

WEEK 1
Bet: Ivan Pace Jr. Under 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +100
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Vikings @ Giants – Sunday @ Noon CST
Recommended Units: 1

Rationale: Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of Pace and have advocated for him in IDP circles at varying points since he came into the league. However, Blake Cashman will be wearing the green dot thereby ensuring his every-down status for Week 1. Given that Vikings’ Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores almost exclusively featured only one full-time linebacker last season (often replacing what is traditionally a second linebacker in nickel subpackages with a third safety in Josh Metellus), Pace may very well not see a significant increase in snaps versus 2023.

For perspective, in games in which Jordan Hicks (the Vikings’ LB1 last year) started and didn’t leave due to injury, Pace only average a 48% snap rate and only surpassed this tackle total line in 3 of 12 games (25% rate). And in one of those games, the Vikings uncharacteristically decided to play both Hicks and Pace as three-down players for the first time all season.

To be fair, no one really knows if Flores is going to continue with this the heavy-use of three safety looks from last year. But given how much the team likes Josh Metellus as well, I’m obviously banking on that they largely will.

Additionally, the Giants offense is expected to be near the bottom of the league talent-wise, so it’s unlikely the Vikings defense sees a high number of snaps. The New York stat crew was slightly below average in terms of giving out total tackles per opportunity to visiting teams last year as well.

The only other thing that gives me slight pause is Pace is a very efficient tackler – his 14.4% tackle frequency in 2023 was top 15 in the category for LBs. However, at even odds and a high tackle line, these are risks I’m willing to take. Sign me up for at least one unit on this bet.

Result: WIN

2024 SEASON-TO-DATE PROP BET RESULTS