7 IDPs to Avoid in Redraft 2023 Leagues

ByRyan Sitzmann Posted on Updated on

Listed below are seven IDPs I recommend avoiding in drafts as of August 18th (two at DL,  three at LB, and two at DB). As you will see, I’ve ranked the majority of these players a decent chunk lower than the “expert consensus rankings” that are logged into the FantasyPros platform or often significantly lower than their current Average Draft Position (ADP).

These are just a few of the many player excerpts and rankings taken out of my 2023 IDP Fantasy Football Draft Guide which is available for purchase here.

2023 IDP Draft Guide Features:

  • Continually Updated in Real-Time Until Start of the Regular Season (9/8)
  • 300 Defensive Players Ranked in Tiered Fashion – 100 DL, 100 LB, 100 DB
  • Customizable Projections for All Ranked IDPs
  • Detailed Player Descriptions
  • Overall Top 100 IDP Rankings List
  • Sleeper/Target/Avoid Notation
  • Top 50 IDP Rookie Rankings
  • Rankings Comparison to FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus (ECR) Rankings
  • Excel Export Functionality

These target recommendations are based on the balanced IDP scoring system listed below:

Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 1.5 points
Assist = 0.75 points
Sack = 4 points
Interception = 5 points
Forced Fumble = 4 points
Fumble Recovery = 4 points
Pass Deflection = 1.5 points
Defensive TD = 6 points

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN


DL15 Joey Bosa – LAC (5), -6 vs. ECR 
In my opinion, Bosa has become a bit overvalued in recent years. He came out of the gate strong winning DROY honors after a 10.5 sack season and followed that up with a career year in 2017 in which had 70 tackles and 12 sacks. However, since then he’s struggled with injury and adjusting to a new scheme. To this point, over the last three seasons, he’s compiled just 19 sacks with last year being especially disappointing after being shut down with a groin injury after just three games. He’s reportedly put on 15-20 pounds to help alleviate some of those injury issues and I’m fine drafting him as my DL2, I just don’t feel comfortable with the risk relying on him to be my fantasy anchor at the position.

DL 49 Trey Hendrickson – CIN (7), -10 vs. ECR
With 35 sacks across the past three seasons, Hendrickson is one of the league’s better pass-rushing threats. However, 34 total tackles (22 solo) in a season is his career high and this really limits his value outside of big play scoring formats. I have him projected for 11 sacks in 2023 and this is where he lands in the rankings. This is a good example of knowing your scoring system and not placing too much weight on sacks if your league doesn’t reward accordingly.

LINEBACKERS

LB31 Frankie Luvu – CAR (7), -7 vs. ECR 
Luvu, an undrafted bench player up until last year, was perhaps the biggest IDP surprise of the 2022 season. He finished with over 100 total tackles and 7 sacks over 15 games en route to a top 10 finish at the position. Given his sudden emergence out of nowhere, I was already a bit skeptical of a repeat performance in 2023 and now the new defensive scheme casts further doubt on his 2023 value. Ejiro Evero, the Panthers new Defensive Coordinator, had only 1 off-the-ball linebacker on the field at twice the league average last season. And from the limited preseason action we’ve seen, it was Shaq Thompson and not Luvu who stayed on the field in these specific subpackages, so the latter could very well be looking at a reduced role this year. I’m letting others chase his 2022 stats and avoiding him in my drafts.

LB56 Brian Asamoah II MIN (13), -10 vs. ECR 
On the surface, Asamoah II seems like a sneaky pick to make a dramatic leap forward in production in year 2 given he’s slated to take over Eric Kendricks’ former role as the starting MLB in Minnesota. However, new Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores typically only keeps one off-the-ball linebacker on the field full-time and that is going to be Jordan Hicks to start. I just don’t think Asamoah is going to see a high enough snap percentage to give him fantasy relevance outside of the deepest of IDP leagues for 2023.

LB57 Nicholas Morrow PHI (10), -7 vs. ECR
When training camp began, Morrow was expected to have a near full-time role and provide managers with volume-dependent LB3 numbers. However, he’s quickly falling out of favor with the Eagles coaching staff and could be replaced as the starter by Christian Ellis, Zach Cunningham, or Myles Jack. Given he doesn’t have a ton of upside to begin with, he’s a player I would just avoid in drafts right now.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

DB15 Talanoa Hufanga – SF (9), -5 vs. ECR 
With 4 INTs, 9 PDs, 2 sacks, and 2 FFs, Hufanga was one of the best big-play producing safeties in 2022. However, he plays deep a fair amount and his tackle numbers suffer as a result. I tend to favor consistent, week-to-week tackle-producing safeties versus ones that are big-play reliant so Hufanga probably won’t find himself on a ton my rosters this season.

DB22 C.J. Gardner-Johnson – DET (9), -4 vs. ECR 
Gardner-Johnson is coming off a career (albeit injury-shortened) season in which he nabbed six interceptions in 11 games. Actually, all six of these came in a five game span which saw him reel in at least one in each game. He also had a couple double-digit solo tackle performances. All of this added up to an elite DB1 PPG run and ultimately landed him a big contract with the Lions. This was a bit of a surprise signing given the team was already fairly well set at safety and then used a high draft pick on safety Brian Branch. Given the crowded secondary, the team will mainly deploy CGJ in the slot which isn’t a bad place for fantasy purposes. However, we’ve seen nothing in his past history to suggest he can sustain DB1 production in the long-term in that role and with this much tackle competition in the secondary. This said, I feel more comfortable with him as a high-end DB3 versus what the DB2+ most of the general IDP community is currently valuing him at.

Like what you’ve read so far? Looking to dominate your 2023 Fantasy Football draft(s)? For $10.99 you can get complete access to The IDP Guru’s comprehensive and exhaustive 2023 IDP Fantasy Football Draft Guide. OR you can get both my Draft Guide and access to all my In-Season Premium Content by purchasing my 2022 Gold Package for just $19.99. 

Questions, comments, or concerns with any of these recommendations? If so, please let me know by hitting me up on Twitter or emailing me at theidpguru@idpguru.com.