2021 IDP Prop Bets
Given I’ve been running a Fantasy Football IDP website for 10+ years and finished #1 in overall IDP accuracy in 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020 according to FantasyPros.com, I thought it was time to try my hand at IDP Prop Betting as those become more prevalent across some sportsbooks.
Also, if you are into Fantasy Football, you may be interested in checking out these football betting odds. Maybe I’m being a homer, but I personally like the Cowboys -4 as the team is finally near 100% healthy and has had 10 days to gear up and game plan for this important divisional matchup.
Each week (starting in Week 3), I will update this post with new bets. Keep in mind, I usually post my thoughts to Twitter first so make sure and give me a follow there to get betting (and all other IDP-related) updates in the quickest fashion. For the time being, I’ll be making my bets available for free.
Note: Units are the percentage of your overall bankroll (e.g. 1 unit equals betting 1% of your overall bankroll)
WEEK 18
Bet: Devin White Over 3.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -177
Sportsbook: Barstool
Game: Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Saturday @ 2:00pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: The rationale here is essentially the same as for the Reeder bet – no every-down linebacker’s total tackle line should be set this low. White has cleared this in 15 of 18 games this year (83%) and the implied odds are 62.5%, so there’s still really good value here even with the heavy juice. Gonna place 2 units on this as well.
Result:
Bet: Troy Reeder Over 3.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -167
Sportsbook: Barstool
Game: Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Saturday @ 2:00pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: Yes, the juice on this bet is extremely heavy. However, I have no idea how this total tackle line was set so low at just 3.5. My guess is Barstool is basing it off Reeder’s anomoly of a performance last week where he had just three tackles. That game was essentially a blow out that resulted in minimal tackle opportunity for all the Rams’ defenders. Since Ernest Jones went down with an injury in Week 16, Reeder has been the team’s clear every-down linebacker and Sean McVay has already confirmed that Reeder will be calling the defensive plays today with Jordan Fuller out. This gives me even more confidence he will play in a near every-down capacity. Most importantly, in the three regular season games since becoming the team’s primary linebacker, Reeder has averaged 91% of the snaps played and 8 total tackles per game with tackle performances of six, ten, and eight in Weeks 16, 17, and 18, respectively. The bottom line is no every-down down linebacker (let alone the team’s only one) should have a tackle line this low. Sign me up for two units.
Result:
Bet: David Long Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -130
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans – Saturday @ 3:30pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: After missing several weeks with a hamstring injury, Long Jr. returned to the active lineup in Week 17 and played 55% of the snaps. With the addition of Zach Cunningham and incumbents Rashaan Evans and Jayon Brown still working in at linebacker, there was some concern that Long’s Week 17 usage could stick in the long-term if the Titans opted to continue with a heavy rotation of guys at the position. However, he was back up to 100% in Week 18, so it looks like the team was just easing him back into the lineup after an extended amount of time on the injury list and will be using him as an every-down player moving forward like they were earlier in the season prior to his injury. Additionally, Rashaan Evans is a healthy inactive today which further signals Long Jr. should continue to see a high percentage of playing time. During the seven games across Weeks 2-9 in which he was a three-down backer, he averaged 9.4 total tackles per game and exceeded this tackle line in five out of seven contests (71%). He has an attractive matchup against the Bengals today as they gave up the third most tackles to opposing linebackers during the regular season. The Titans home stat crew is slightly below average (2oth) in terms of how many tackles they issue to their home players, but Long Jr. still shouldn’t have much of an issue clearing this line assuming he gets a near full complement of snaps.
Result: Win (8 Total Tackles)
WEEK 18
Bet: Leighton Vander Esch Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles – Saturday @ 7:15pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: With Micah Parsons out due to being on the COVID list, Vander Esch should be in a true, every-down role for the first time this season. Although the Eagles are a bottom three tackle matchup for linebackers on the whole and their stat crew is not very generous to opposing teams, I expect Dallas’ defense to be on the field more than usual this week with several key defensive players inactive and the organization likely to rest many of their top players for a good portion of the game. Additionally, Vander Esch played a season-high 72% of the snaps last week with Keanu Neal out and led the team with 10 total tackles against a bottom tier matchup against the Cardinals. He’s been averaging a tackle every 8.4 snaps and is coming off his best performance of the season in Week 17, so as long as he sees 40+ snaps (average snaps across teams per game this season has been 63 for reference), he should be able to eclipse this tackle line with relative ease. I’m tempted to bet more than 1 unit, but the last week of the regular season can often be quite unpredictable, so I’ll stick with one unit on this bet.
Result: Win (6 Total Tackles)
WEEK 14
Bet: Keanu Neal Under 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -110
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: With DeMarcus Lawrence back, Micah Parsons spent most of his time at off-the-ball linebacker. This resulted in a dramatic decrease in playing time for Neal who saw just 33% of the defensive snaps in Week 13. Granted Leighton Vander Esch has not played well at all recently, so Neal could see a bit of a bump in playing time as the team looks to limit LVE’s exposure. However, I still don’t think Neal’s going to see enough snaps against Washington to get to seven total tackles. The odds are pretty favorable as well, so I’m going with a one unit bet on this.
Result: Win (2 Total Tackles)
Bet: Ryan Neal Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +100
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Seattle Seahawks@ Houston Texans – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: With Jamal Adams out for season with a shoulder injury, Neal will take over the starting strong safety role in Seattle. Based on his usage last week, he should be playing a very similar role to Adams which has him up in the box quite a bit. So although the matchup isn’t great, 4.5TT is a super low line for an every down starting box safety. Plus, Houston’s home stat crew issues the 8th most total tackles to opposing defenses. I’m placing one unit on this, especially given we are getting even odds.
Result: Win (7 Total Tackles)
WEEK 10
Bet: Shaq Thompson Over 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -110
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Posted to Twitter
Result: Loss (6 Total Tackles)
Bet: Leighton Vander Esch Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +110
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Posted to Twitter
Result: Loss (3 Total Tackles)
Bet: Josh Bynes Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -130
Sportsbook: Fanduel
Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins – Thursday @ 7:20pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Despite being a fairly well established veteran, Josh Bynes isn’t what many would consider a “household name.” Additionally, he was a backup for most of the season until the team decided to scale back Patrick Queen’s role and go with a more consistent performer in Bynes as their primary linebacker. During the last three weeks in which Bynes has been the starter, he’s had at least six total tackles or more. He’s coming off an 11 tackle tackle performance last week in which he saw a season-high 83% of the defensive snaps. The Dolphins aren’t a top-notch tackle matchup but they aren’t bad either, coming into Thursday Night’s game giving up the 11th most total tackles to opposing linebackers. Additionally, their home stat crew issues out the third most total tackles per opportunity to opposing defenses. In essence, I don’t think the books have fully caught on to Bynes’ increased prominence in the Ravens’ defense. I like Bynes to clear this relatively low tackle line and am comfortable placing one unit on this bet.
Result: Loss (4 Total Tackles)
WEEK 8
Bet: Micah Parsons Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings – Sunday @ 7:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Parsons has been a bit up and down this year as the team has varied his responsibilities throughout the season, relying on him as a pass-rusher fairly exclusively earlier in the season. As of the last couple games, he’s been back as a traditional off-the-ball linebacker for the vast majority of snaps. Parsons rarely misses a snap and will see a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook on Sunday Night in a game where Dallas’ defense will quite likely be on the field a lot more than typical with Dak Prescott out. Parsons wasn’t able to deliver for us in Week 6 but I’m returning to this bet as I think he gets it done this time.
Result:
Bet: Kamu Grugier-Hill Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: KGH has surpassed this total tackle amount in four of five games (80%) since becoming a full-time linebacker over Zach Cunningham. If all goes to plan, the Texans defense should be on the field a lot against the Rams high-powered offense. Additionally, Christian Kirskey is playing with a thumb injury which will require him to wear a club on his hand. This may allow more tackle opportunity for Grugier-Hill. Add in the fact that the Texans home stat crew awards the 2nd most total tackles per opportunity to Texans’ players and I like the over on this one.
Result: Loss (5 Total Tackles)
Bet: Landon Collins Under 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +110
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Washington Football Team @ Denver Broncos – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Collins has surpassed this line in four of seven games in 2021 (57%). However, his role changed dramatically last week with the team moving him from traditional safety to a subpackage linebacker. Although he did have seven solos last week with this change, he only played 43% of the snaps. If that level of diminished playing time continues this week, it will be hard for him to keep up that very high tackle efficiency against a middle-of-the-road Denver tackle matchup.
Result: Loss (8 Total Tackles)
Bet: Joey Bosa Over 2.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +100
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots – Sunday @ 3:05pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Along with Myles Garrett (see bet below), Bosa is one of the league’s more consistent tackle producing defensive ends. He’s gone over this total tackle amount in five of his six games this year (83%) and in 60% of his 80 career games, so I’m a little surprised to see this bet at even odds. Bosa should be fresh coming off a bye week and hopefully that helps push him over this line to cash this bet for us.
Result: Loss (2 Total Tackles)
Bet: Myles Garrett Over 2.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -130
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: I’ve laid money on this tackle line for Garrett twice this year already and it’s hit both times, so we are going “back to the well” once again. He’s exceeded this total tackle amount in six of his seven contests so far this year (86%). This is a big divisional game so I have to expect that Garrett comes out fired up and cashes this bet again for us. For what it’s worth, he had 4 TT in both games against the Steelers last year. I’m laying one unit on this.
Result: Win (4 Total Tackles)
Bet: Devin Bush Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Bush has cleared this total tackle line in three of the five games he’s played this year (60%) with the one miss coming in a contest he left early with an injury and only played 42% of the defensive snaps. Although he’s playing in coverage more and his tackle production has been disappointing relative to his ADP, getting to five total tackles shouldn’t be difficult for most linebackers who play 80%+ of the defensive snaps like Bush. Additionally, the Browns have given up the sixth most tackles to inside linebackers and will likely rely even more heavily on their run game this week. With an extra week of rest to heal up from his injuries, I’m looking for Bush to come out a bit revitalized and ultimately cashing this bet.
Result: Win (5 Total Tackles)
WEEK 7
Bet: Harold Landry Under 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Posted to Twitter
Result: Win (1 Total Tackles)
Bet: Tae Crowder Under 9.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers -Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Crowder has been a strong tackle producer since taking over for the injured Blake Martinez in Week 3, averaging 9.5 total tackles across his four games started and hitting the over on this tackle line in 50% of those games. However, he’s graded out as one of the worst linebackers in the NFL this year and rumors have been a float in recent weeks that the team may be looking to move away from/reduce Crowder’s playing time. The Giants signed veteran Bernardrick McKinney to the practice squad a few days ago and just elevated him to the active roster Saturday morning. This is likely due to Crowder landing on the injury list late in the week with a thigh injury. So my thinking on this is either Crowder is inactive and this bet gets voided or he’s active but is either a) limited in effectiveness due to the injury and/or b) he loses snaps to McKinney thereby making it very difficult to hit this fairly high total tackle line.
Result: Win (6 Total Tackles)
Bet: Denzel Ward Over 3.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +100
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos – Thursday @ 7:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Ward is an every snap cornerback that has hit the over on this total tackle line in four of the five (80%) games he’s played in full this season (excluding his Week 5 game as he exited with an injury after nine snaps and did not return). The Broncos have allowed the second most total tackles to cornerbacks through six games. To further contextualize that stat, 7 out of 9 (78%) cornerbacks that have played 90% or more of the snaps have garnered 4 or more total tackles against Denver. See below for player-by-player specifics. He should also spend most of his time covering the the Broncos current #1 WR Cameron Sutton who has seen double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks. The Cleveland home stat crew is fairly average (13th) when it comes to total tackles issued per tackle opportunity.
James Bradberry – 7TT
Adoree Jackson – 5TT
Shaq Griffin – 5TT
Bryce Hall – 5TT
Anthony Averett – 4TT
Marlon Humphrey – 3TT
Joe Haden – 5TT
James Pierre – 6TT
Casey Hayward – 3TT
All this said, I like Ward’s chances of getting at least 4 total tackles and we are getting even odds which is nice. I’m placing one unit on this bet.
Result: Loss (2 Total Tackles – Injured)
Bet: Greedy Williams Under 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos – Thursday @ 7:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Greedy Williams has only been receiving starter snaps due to an injury to rookie Greg Newsome II. Newsome was back last week but didn’t get much practice time in so was on a restricted snap count (28%). After getting in a week of full practices, Newsome should be back in a near every-down capacity which would mean Williams revert to a fourth corner role. In that role earlier in the season, he only averaged around 15% of the snaps which would make hitting 5 total tackles extremely difficult even in a good matchup like the Broncos.
Result: Win (O Total Tackles)
WEEK 6
Bet: Micah Parsons Over 3.5 Solo Tackles and Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -105/+105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 2 units on O3.5 Solos and 1 unit on O5.5TT
Rationale: These lines just seem off to me. Parsons has the same solo/TT lines as Keanu Neal and Leighton Vander Esch despite both of those players being in a 50/50 timeshare. Additionally, the juice is a good chunk less for the Parsons’ bets relative to those two other players. This just doesn’t make sense given Parsons is an every-down backer and centerpiece of the defense. My assumption is the books are looking at Parsons’ tackle stats to date (5 TT average/game) to set this line. However, he had multiple weeks where he was playing exclusively at defensive end which negatively skews the numbers. But the last two weeks he’s been back as an off-the-ball linebacker pretty much every snap. Despite the Giants struggling to do anything offensively last week, Parsons had 8 total tackles and led the team in the category. The Patriots have been a much better tackle matchup for linebackers than the Giants and I expect them to run even more than usual this week to control the time of possession and keep Dallas’ high-powered offense off the field. Additionally, the Patriots have issued the most solo tackles per tackle opportunity to visiting teams in the entire league, making the over on 3.5 solos an extra attractive bet. 7 of 8 (88%) qualified linebackers (non-edge rushing LBs who have played 90% of the snaps or more) have had 4 or more solos against the Patriots with Quincy Williams the only player falling short with 3 back in Week 2. I like both of these bets quite a lot but I like the over 3.5 Solo Tackles at -105 odds a bit more. This said, I’m going 2 units on that bet and 1 unit on the over 5.5 Solos + Assists. Let’s ride.
Result: Loss (3 Solos and 5 Total Tackles)
Bet: Kyzir White Over 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: White’s only hit eight or more total tackles once this year, but he’s only been averaging around 70% of the defensive snaps. With Drue Tranquill and Kenneth Murray out with injury, White should see a very nice bump in playing time up into the 90% range, if not 100%. It also sounds like the team may rely on him to “spy” on Lamar Jackson In the four-game stretch last year when White saw 90%+ playing time, he posted the following lines and averaged over 11 total tackles/game!:
Wk 2: 5-4 (9TT)
Wk 3: 8-3 (11TT)
Wk 4: 8-2 (10TT)
Wk 5: 10-5 (15TT)
With Baltimore being such a run-heavy team in the Lamar Jackson-era, they’ve been a great tackle matchup for opposing linebackers. White only really has Derwin James to compete with for tackles in this game, so I can see him hitting double-digit tackles in this one if all goes to plan.
Result: Win (8 Total Tackles)
Bet: Christian Kirksey Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -125
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: I’ve bet the over on Kirksey’s total tackle line twice already this year and he’s cashed in both instances (Weeks 3 and 5). Although his TT line is at 6.5 versus 5.5 in the previous bets, I still feel good putting a unit on this specific prop. The Colts have been a decent tackle matchup for opposing inside linebackers allowing the 12th most total tackles to the position. Additionally, the home stat crew is the 2nd most generous in the league in rewarding tackles per tackle opportunity with actually a bit more favorability to the visiting team. Kirksey plays every down and seems to be picking up steam as the season progresses as he’s averaged nearly 10 total tackles per game over the last three weeks. Kamu Grugier-Hill has taken over for Zach Cunningham as the other every-down backer and, although he’s debatably a better on the field talent right now, he’s not as efficient of a tackle producer. This decrease in tackle competition should also benefit Kirskey positively moving forward. Ultimately, I’m banking on the Colts coming out on dominating the time of possession in this home game after a tough loss on prime time television last week. If the 10 point favorites can indeed accomplish this, Kirksey should hit my tackle projection which is in the 8-9 range.
Result: Loss (4 Total Tackles)
Bet: Vonn Bell Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Cincinnati Bengals @ Detroit Lions – Sunday @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: Bell has exceeded this line in 15 of his 21 games with the Bengals (71%). He squares off against the Lions who allow the 10th most total tackles to safeties, but are especially favorable for “box safeties” such as Bell. As you will see below, every starting strong safety to date has had at least 7 total tackles or more and are averaging over whopping 9 total tackles per game. This makes sense as opposing defenses have stacked the box against the Lions this year in an effort to force them to pass given their lack of quality traditional receiving weapons. I feel comfortable setting this wager at 2 units.
Starting SS Against Detroit in 2021
1) Jaquiski Tartt = 7TT
2) Adrian Amos = 9TT
3) Chuck Clark = 12TT
4) Deon Bush = 9TT
5) Harrison Smith = 9TT
Result: Win (7 Total Tackles)
Bet: Budda Baker Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -150
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.25
Rationale: Baker has exceeded 6.5 total tackles in 60% of the 58 career games he’s started. The Browns give up the 3rd most total tackles to opposing safeties. With a couple key coaches out with COVID, Arizona’s offense could struggle leaving more than normal tackle opportunity for the Cardinals defense. I think Baker will be busy in this one and can easily envision 8 or 9 total tackles.
Result: Loss (3 Total Tackles)
Bet: Adrian Phillips Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: Phillips has only hit 6 total tackles or more once in five games this season. However, all four teams he missed that total against where below average matchups (26, 32, 26, 21) and he’s seen his playing time expand from around 70% the first two weeks up to an average of 90% the last three weeks. He’s also coming off his best tackle production of the year in Week 5 (8 total tackles). The Cowboys give up the most total tackles to opposing safeties in the league and have allowed 8 of 10 starting safeties to hit the over on this line. Phillips spends a good amount of time up in-the-box and Dallas has been the most run-heavy team over the last four weeks. At near even odds, I’ll put 1.5 units against this bet.
Result: Loss (4 Total Tackles)
Bet: Anthony Brown Over 3.5 Solo Tackles
Odds: -165
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots – Sunday @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.25
Rationale: Brown has had four or more solo tackles in 4/5 games (6, 5, 4, 6) this season. His one miss came against the Giants who are a poor tackle producing matchup for CBs (23rd) and couldn’t do much of anything in the passing game with Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Kenny Golladay all getting knocked out of the game due to injury. The Patriots, on the other hand, have given up the most solo tackles to opposing cornerbacks, and by a fairly wide margin – they are allowing 15 solos/game with Buffalo next at 13.4. Additionally, their home stat crew issues the most solo tackles per tackle opportunity in the league to visiting teams. Every single cornerback that’s played over 70% of the defensive snaps vs. the Pats has cashed the over on this line so far this year (8 of 8).
Byron Jones – 5 (100%)
Xavien Howard – 4 (100%)
Bryce Hall – 5 (97%)
Marshon Lattimore – 8 (100%)
Paulson Adebo – 5 (100%)
Richard Sherman – 7 (98%)
Desmond King – 6 (97%)
Terrance Mitchell – 6 (97%)
I think New England will control the time of possession to keep Dallas’ offense on the sidelines and with Brown averaging 97% of the defensive snaps, he should have no issues hitting at least 4 solos as long he avoids an injury. The juicy is heavy on this at -165 but that’s still only an implied odds of 62% and I have this closer to 75-80% chance of hitting. So I’m more than willing to place 1.25 unit bet on this. If you have an odds boost play by chance, this would be a good one to use it on to lessen the vig.
Result: Loss (2 Solos)
Bet: Eric Wilson Under 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Thursday @ 7:20pm CST
Recommended Units: 2.5
Rationale: I got burned last week on a heavy three unit under tackle bet on TNF but as @BreezeIDP pointed out on Twitter, this bet is too good to pass up. Yes, Wilson has surpassed this total tackle line in three of his last four games. However, he’s not played well at all this year and has seen his playing time cut as the season wears on. Last week he saw a season-low 41% of the snaps as the team wants to see what second-year player Davion Taylor can do with more playing time now that he’s fully healthy (his snap share increased from 13% in Week 4 to 34% in Week 5). The team seems excited about Taylor’s play coming out of Week 5, so there’s a chance he could eat into Wilson’s playing time even more substantially this week. Additionally, the Bucs aren’t a run-heavy team and therefore haven’t historically been a super strong tackle matchup for opposing linebackers. Of all “qualified” linebackers (played ~70% or more of defensive snaps), only 2 out 7 (29%) of have hit this line this season:
Micah Parsons – 7 TT
Deion Jones – 4 TT
Foye Oluokun – 9 TT
Kenny Young – 10 TT
Kyle Van Noy – 1 TT
Dont’a Hightower – 3 TT
Jerome Baker – 7 TT
The Philadelphia stat crew has been inconsistent in terms of how they’ve issued out tackles through their first two games, but on the whole so far, they are 22nd in total tackles issued per tackle opportunity. Factor in getting near even payout on this and you have yourself all the rationale you need for a 2.5 unit bet. The bottom line is if Wilson’s playing time remains at week ago levels, he’s going to have to tackle at an insanely efficient rate or get a ton of help from a sometimes, assist-heavy home stat crew to go over this line.
Result: Win (2 Total Tackles)
WEEK 5
Bet: Bobby Okereke Over 4.5 Solo Tackles
Odds: -150
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens- Monday @ 7:15PM CST
Recommended Units: 0.75
Rationale: Okereke has played every snap for the Colts so far and has posted 5+ solos in 50% of his 2021 regular season games. I’m liking this particular bet as Baltimore’s offense is allowing the most solo tackles to inside linebackers at 13.5 per game. 6 of 7 linebackers (86%) who have played 70%+ of the defensive snaps against the Ravens this season have cleared this solo tackle total (inefficient tackler Justin Strand being the one outlier). As an added bonus, the Ravens stat crew is issuing the sixth most solo tackles per opportunity to visiting teams in the league (compared to 32nd for assists). For context, both Anthony Hitchens and Nick Bolton set season highs of 9 and 8 solo tackles respectively in the one Baltimore home game this season. All this said, I really like Okereke’s chances of cashing this (especially with Darius Leonard’s productivity slipping a bit due to injury). I can envision him getting at least six to seven solos tonight. But given the heavy juice, I’m only recommending betting 0.75 units.
Result: Win (7 Solos)
Bet: Tyrann Mathieu Over 3.5 Solo Tackles
Odds: -120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills- Sunday @ 7:20PM CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Posted to Twitter
Result: Win (4 Solo Tackles)
Bet: Christian Kirksey Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -150
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots- Sunday @ 12PM CST
Recommended Units: 0.75
Rationale: I was contemplating this bet when the line was at 6.5 (+105), now that it lowered down to 5.5, I’m willing to place 0.75 unit on it despite the heavy juice as Kirksey has surpassed this total in each of his first four games. The Patriots have allowed 4/6 every-down linebackers (90%+ of defensive snaps played in that week) to hit to mark so far this year. Additionally, the Texans stat crew is issuing the 7th most total tackles per opportunity. Similar to the David Long Jr. bet, getting a line this low for an every-down linebacker he plays 100% of the snaps is hard to pass up.
Result: Win (12 Total Tackles)
Bet: De’Vondre Campbell Over 2.5 Assists
Odds: +120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday @ 12PM CST
Recommended Units: 1.25
Rationale: Campbell is averaging 3.5 assists per game this year and has cleared this line 75% of the time. The breakdown of his assists per game and home stat crew tendencies is below.
Wk 1: NO = 3rd most to visitors, 1 assist (90% of snaps played)
Wk 2: GB = 17th most to home, 3 assists (100% of snaps played)
Wk 3: SF = 9th most to visitors, 6 assists (100% of snaps played)
Wk 4: GB = 17th most to home, 4 assists (100% of snaps played)
This week, he goes up against the Bengals whose stat crew issues the 6th most assists to opposing teams in the league. Additionally, Cincinnati is an OK matchup allowing the 13th most tackles to inside linebackers. I can see them dialing up the run game more to try and control the time of possession/keep Rodgers off the field which could bode well for Campbell’s tackle opportunity. I don’t see the Jaylon Smith signing impacting Campbell’s playing time this week and expect him to play every down. I’m placing 1.25 units on this given the nice plus odds as I believe the payout line on this is just incorrect.
Result: Win (3 Assists)
Bet: Drue Tranquill Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns – Sunday @ 3:05PM CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: The injury to Kenneth Murray has caused Tranquill to recently see a huge uptick in playing time. Through the first three weeks, he saw just 5%, 18%, and 43% of the defensive snaps, respectively. Last week with Murray out, that jumped to 89% which led all Chargers’ linebackers. Although he only had five total tackles last week, the Raiders struggled mightily to control the ball, so almost all Los Angeles defenders struggled to produce due to the low opportunity. He should have a ton more chances this week against a run-heavy Browns offense that has averaged 20 TT per game allowed to ILBs (2nd most in the NFL). Tranquill has been a fairly efficient tackler since entering the league, so I really like his chances of putting up 8-9 total tackles in this one.
Result: Win (10 Total Tackles)
Bet: David Long Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday @ 12PM CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: Long has gone over 4.5 total tackles in two of his three games as a starter this season with tackle lines of 2-4, 5-3 against the Seahawks and Colts. Although the Jaguars aren’t a great matchup, they aren’t horrible either (18th most tackles allowed to inside linebackers) and this is a really low tackle line for pretty much any every-down linebacker. Long has played essentially every snap the past three weeks and with Jayon Brown heading to injured reserve a couple days ago, Long will continue to function in that role for Week 5 as well. The Jaguars home stat crew is also giving the ninth most tackles per tackle opportunity which should help push Long over the top on this bet. Factor in we are getting plus odds and I like this one for 1.5 units.
Result: Win (12 Total Tackles)
Bet: Isaiah Simmons Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -130
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers – Sunday @ 3:25 PM CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: Simmons has surpassed 6.5 total tackles in three of his four contests (9, 8, and 7) and had 6TT in his one miss in a mediocre matchup against the Jaguars. He squares off against the 49ers this week who have allowed the most tackles to inside linebackers of any team in the NFL through four games. Simmons has participated in 89% of the defensive snaps this year and is coming off a career high 96% of the snaps played last week. The only near every-down linebacker this year to fail reaching this total tackle line was Alex Anzalone in Week 1 who is one of the league’s least efficient tackle-producers (these linebackers all exceeded the total: Eric Wilson – 10TT, Alex Singleton – 11TT, De’Vondre Campbell -12TT, Bobby Wagner -10TT, and Jordyn Brooks – 7TT). I have Simmons projected in the 7.5-8 total tackle range, so I believe we are getting really nice value here even at -130 odds.
Result: Loss (3 Total Tackles)
Bet: Kenny Young Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks – Thursday @ 7:20PM CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: I think this line is at least 1 tackle too low (I have Young projected in the 7.5-9 TT range). Young has hit this line in two of four games so far this season; however, it likely would have been in three games if he didn’t get ejected in the third quarter in Week 2. On the surface, Seattle is a mid-tier matchup in terms of tackles allowed to linebackers; however, they’ve been quite good the last two weeks allowing all four every-down linebackers to easily surpass this total (and there was actually one opposing linebacker in both Week 1 and Week 2 that had at least 7 total tackles):
Week 3
Eric Kendricks – 11TT
Nick Vigil – 8TT
Week 4
Azeez Al-Shaair – 10TT
Fred Warner – 9TT
Young plays every snap and is the only ILB on the team to do so which gives him a high weekly tackle floor. Add in the fact that the Seahawks stat crew has been super assist-heavy and therefore has issued the second most tackles per opportunity in the league, I’m fairly confident Young can reach at least seven total tackles and cash this bet for us.
Result: Loss (4 Total Tackles)
Bet: Jordyn Brooks Under 8.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -140
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks – Thursday @ 7:20PM CST
Recommended Units: 3
Rationale: Brooks hit the over on this line in his first two games of the year but has only managed seven total tackles in each of the last two weeks as he’s seen his playing time cut by 33% in that span. In Week 3, he left due to cramps which caused him to miss some snaps. However, last week the team opted to run a fair amount of dime packages and replace him with Ryan Neal in those defensive looks (26 snaps). Neal played well and the Seahawks won, so there’s a good chance this playing time change could stick moving forward. Seattle plays the Rams this week who are in 3+ WR sets 80% of the time which could mean even less playing time for Brooks this week versus last week. Additionally, the Rams have been a below average tackle matchup for linebackers on the year with only Roquan Smith exceeding 8 total tackles back in Week 1 (Jordan Hicks, Isaiah Simmons, Devin White, Lavonte David all fell short). Lastly, it’s tough to rack up this many tackles when you have to compete with Bobby Wagner who currently leads the NFL in this category with a whopping 54. The odds on this worsened overnight, so a tackle line adjustment downward could be coming. Even if that happens, this bet is likely still playable depending on what the revised line/odds combination is.
Result: Loss (11 Total Tackles)
WEEK 4
Bet: Derwin James Over 4.5 Solo Tackles
Odds: -105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers – Monday@ 7:15PM CST
Recommended Units: 0.75
Rationale: Rationale was posted to Twitter here.
Result: Loss (3 Solos)
Bet: Jalen Ramsey Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -110
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams – Sunday @ 3:05PM CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: I believe the Sportsbooks are setting Ramsey’s lines as though he’s still playing in a traditional shutdown corner role; however, as we’ve seen so far this year, the team is playing him in the “star” role where he has much more ability to roam freely and make plays. This has resulted in nine and eight tackle performances in two of his three games this season. Although he may revert back into a more traditional corner role this week, he should see a good amount of action covering DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals give up the ninth most tackles to opposing cornerbacks and the Rams home stat crew has historically been above average in terms of total tackle generosity compared to the rest of the league. Despite missing on an over Ramsey tackle prop in Week 2, I’m going back to the well on this as this line is just too low in my opinion, especially with fairly good odds.
Result: Win (5 Total Tackles)
Bet: Quincy Williams Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -130
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets – Sunday @ 12PM CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: Williams, a former third-round selection of the Jaguars in the 2019 draft, signed with the Jets in early September and was vaulted into a full-time role after rookie Jamien Sherwood went down with an injury in Week 1. Even with Sherwood back last week, Williams still played in 94% of the defensive snaps. He’s made a couple big plays for a team short of defensive talent and is the brother of the Jets’ best defensive player in Quinnen Williams, so it seems like he’s likely to stick in a near every-down role, at least in the immediate near-term. During his two-game stretch as a starter, he’s had five and six total tackles. However, the critical point this week is he has an absolute “smash” matchup against Derrick Henry and the Titans who’ve been great for opposing linebacker’s tackle production. With both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown out this week, expect Tennessee to be even more run-heavy than usual further increasing Williams’ chances of blowing through this line. As long as Williams maintains a near every-down role, he should have no issues getting to six total tackles.
Result: Win (12 Total Tackles)
Bet: Bobby Wagner Under 11.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -140
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers – Sunday @ 3:05PM CST
Recommended Units: 1.25
Rationale: Although I love Bobby Wagner, this is a really high tackle line (I believe it’s the highest line all season so far) and is inflated due to his recent 20 tackle performance in Week 2. Wagner has indeed surpassed 11.5 TT in two of three contests this year but that came against super run-heavy teams in Indianapolis and Tennessee. Given their injuries at running back, I don’t foresee the 49ers running as much as those teams. From a historical perspective, as @BreezeIDP pointed out on Twitter, Wagner has only hit this line 22% of the time his entire 10-year career and only one out of nine times against the 49ers specifically. Additionally, the Seattle home stat crew has historically been below average in terms of total tackles issued per tackle opportunity. It seems like there has been some decent action on the under as the line moved from -130 to -140 throughout Friday. All this said, I’m betting 1.25 units on this.
Result: Win (10 Total Tackles)
Bet: Jerome Baker Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -140
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins – Sunday @ 12PM CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: Baker has had seven more tackles in two of his first three games this season. His one miss in Week 2 was against the Bills who have tended to be a poor matchup for linebackers the last couple of seasons. Baker is an every snap player with little tackle competition and has a Colts team that has allowed the six most tackles to linebackers so far in 2021. Additionally, Miami’s home stat crew has been generous so far in issuing a lot of assists which has translated to them issuing the 8th most total tackles per tackle opportunity in 2021. The Colts didn’t run much last week and got beat, so I expect to see a bump in usage there which should further help Baker’s chances of cashing out this bet. I have Baker projected around 8 total tackles but we could easily see a double-digit tackle performance from him. If the payout were better, I’d likely recommend a heavier wager but placing two units on this bet is reasonable.
Result: Loss (4 Total Tackles)
Bet: Jordan Hicks Under 7.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams – Sunday @ 3:05PM CST
Recommended Units: 0.75
Rationale: I believe Hicks’ 12-tackle performance last week is inflating this line. Despite two very favorable matchups to begin the season in Tennessee and Minnesota, Hicks only managed four and six total tackles in those games respectively despite being an every-down player. He gets the Rams this week who have been a below average tackle matchup for linebackers in the Sean McVay era and have become even more pass-heavy with Matthew Stafford at the helm. I can easily see this being a shootout through the air without a ton of rushing attempts, leaving little opportunity for Hicks to capitalize on. This isn’t a huge tackle line to eclipse, however. So I’m recommending placing 0.75 units on this bet.
Result: Loss (8 Total Tackles)
Bet: Justin Simmons Over 4.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -150
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Baltimore Ravens @Denver Broncos – Sunday @ 3:25PM CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: Here’s a line that I think is suppressed due to Simmons coming off the least productive two-game stretch of his career since he became a full-time player in 2017. The Broncos have had a super soft schedule which had led to them leading the league in time of possession and giving their defenders very little opportunity. I think that changes this week as the Ravens are by far the best team they’ve faced this year. They also run a ton which has resulted in them being a top seven matchup for safeties in terms of tackle production. In fact, every starting safety facing Baltimore so far this year has eclipsed this specific prop bet tackle line:
Week 1: Jonathan Abram – 10TT, Trevon Moehrig – 5TT
Week 2: Daniel Sorensen – 10TT, Tyrann Mathieu – 6TT
Week 3: Will Harris – 6TT, Dean Marlowe – 5TT
Despite a very slow start to this year, Simmons exceeded 4.5TT in 12 of 16 (75%) games in 2020. I believe Simmons fairly easily blows through this tackle line but given the juice on this one is high, I’m only recommending 1.5 units.
Result: Win (8 Total Tackles)
Bet: Rashawn Jenkins Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -105
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals – Thursday @ 12PM CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Jenkins has cleared this line in two of his first three games. More importantly, as Jon Macri mentioned on Twitter, Jenkins has spent more time “in the box” than any other safety in the league (132 snaps to date) which provides him with above average tackle opportunity. The Bengals home stat crew was slightly above average (13th) in terms of tackles issued per opportunity in 2020. Although the Bengals are 30th in tackles allowed to safeties, they haven’t really played against any above average tackle producers at the position outside of Harrison Smith (who notched six total tackles against them in Week 1). I don’t think Jenkins blows over this line, but I envision a six to eight total tackle performance from him on Thursday Night Football.
Result: WIN (7 Total Tackles)
Bet: Logan Wilson Over 6.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -125
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals – Thursday @ 12PM CST
Recommended Units: 2
Rationale: There was some late line movement on this that lowered the total tackle number from 7.5 to 6.5 and I think that’s created some pretty nice value. Wilson is averaging 10 total tackles per game and has surpassed 6.5 in each of the first three weeks (7, 9, and 14). He’s had some playing time fluctuation (87% snap average); however, after intercepting three passes already on the year and coming off a 14-tackle performance, I have to believe the Bengals will keep him on the field in a near every-down capacity. Jacksonville is a fairly mediocre matchup for opposing linebackers, allowing the 19th most tackles to the position but that’s not overly concerning given this is a relatively low tackle line. I’m banking on Wilson rising up the challenge on a Primetime National game where he has a chance to make his name more widely known.
Result: WIN (10 Total Tackles)
WEEK 3
Bet: Christian Kirksey Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game: Houston Texans vs. Carolina Panthers – Thursday @ 7:20PM CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Kirksey has cleared this total tackle line in each of his first two games despite relatively poor matchups. He’s a true every down player who should see increased tackle opportunities against Christian McCaffrey. With rookie David Mills making his first NFL start against an impressive Panthers defense, I expect Houston’s defense to stay on the field more than they have in previous weeks and further increase Kirksey’s opportunity. Lastly, the Houston Home Stat crew is slightly above average in terms of tackles issued per opportunity which is another added bonus.
Result: WIN (10 Total Tackles)
Bet: Jamal Adams Over 5.5 Solos + Assists
Odds: +100
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game Time: Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings @ 3:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: Adams has cleared this total tackle line in each of his first two games with totals of six and eight in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. Even with Dalvin Cook unlikely to play, the Vikings should still run the ball a good amount leading to nice tackle opportunity for Adams. Box/strong safeties have put up seven (Vonn Bell) and eight (Budda Baker) total tackles so far this season against Minnesota. And to top things off, the Vikings home stat crew has issues the most tackles per opportunity in the league last year. Getting plus odds on this play is another added bonus.
Result: WIN (12 Total Tackles)
Bet: Ronnie Harrison Over 5.5 Total Tackles
Odds: +115
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game Time: Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Since he was ejected several snaps into the Week 1 contest, we have to ignore that week in terms of analysis. In Week 2 however, Harrison played 87% of the snaps with 40% of those coming up close to the line of scrimmage/”in the box.” This helped him to finish second on the team in total tackles with seven against a Texans’ offense who struggles to control the ball. The Bears have allowed the seventh most total tackles to safeties through two games, so I like Harrison’s chances for 6 total tackles or more, especially at plus odds.
Result: Loss (2 Total Tackles)
Bet: Damien Wilson Under 6.5 Total Tackles
Odds: +100
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game Time: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Arizona Cardinals @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: As @BreezeIDP pointed out on Twitter (great follow for IDP prop bets), Wilson saw his playing time decrease from 75% to 55% over the last two weeks as the Jaguars faced offenses with increasing spread looks. They get the Cardinals this week who are a very heavy spread team. This said, we could see Wilson’s playing time cut even further as the team does not prefer him on the field in passing situations.
Result: Loss (9 Total Tackles)
Bet: Myles Garrett Over 2.5 Total Tackles
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game Time: Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1.5
Rationale: I recommended this same exact bet last week and it cashed, so I’m going “back to the well” again this week. Garrett has cleared this total in 14 of his last 16 games (87.5% hit rate). His opponent this week in the Chicago Bears have allowed the most tackles to defensive ends through the season’s first two weeks. This one has some juice on it but I don’t mind paying with these type of historical stats to back up the bet.
Result: Win (7 Total Tackles)
Bet: Patrick Queen Over 6.5 Total Tackles
Odds: -135
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game Time: Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions @ 12pm CST
Recommended Units: 1
Rationale: Queen has cleared this prop in each of his first two weeks with nine and eight total tackles in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. That eight tackle performance came against a poor matchup in the Chiefs where he played every snap on defense for the first time in his career. The Lions have actually been a good matchup for linebackers so far this season as they allowed Fred Warner (11), Azeez Al-Shaair (7), Dre Greenlaw (6) and De’Vondre Campbell (13) to get close to this prop or well exceed it.
Result: Loss (6 Total Tackles)
Bet: Azeez Al-Shaair Over 5.5 Total Tackles
Odds: -120
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Game Time: San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers @ 7:25pm CST
Recommended Units: 0.5
Rationale: The injury to Dre Greenlaw in Week 1’s game opened the door for Al-Shaair to move over to the weak side of the defense and play every snap. He had seven tackles in Week 1 on 78% of the snaps and five tackles against the Eagles last week despite playing 100% of the snaps. However, Philadelphia has been a relatively poor matchup for LBs so far this season so that lower tackle line isn’t a complete shock. I expect Green Bay’s offense to control the time of possession more this week as it’s an area they’ve struggled in so far to begin the year. Anytime you can get a talented, every-down linebacker whose tackle line under six, I usually take it. Plus, it gives us all something extra to watch for tonight on MNF :).
Result: Win (10 Total Tackles)
WEEK 2
Prop bet information was posted solely on Twitter for this week
WEEK 1
Prop bet information was posted solely on Twitter for this week
2021 SEASON-TO-DATE PROP BET RESULTS