2018 IDP Rankings – Busts (Redraft)

I always hesitate to use the word “bust” because readers often associate that word with players who will have a very poor season. I prefer to use the word “overvalued” instead. As a drafter, this is what I am always looking for: value. If a player is going two rounds higher than I projected him at, I’m not going to draft him, no matter if I think he’s going to have a good season or not.

In this article, I recommend four defensive linemen, four linebackers, and four defensive backs who I believe will be overvalued heading into the 2018 fantasy season.

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I will periodically update these throughout the off-season to reflect changes in free agency, defensive schemes, playing time, draft selections, etc. However, keep in mind that the information listed here is just a small sample of a much larger set of rankings and descriptions that are accessible through purchasing my 2018 IDP Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

Scoring System:
Solo Tackle = 1 point
Assist = 0.5 point
Sack = 3 points
Interception = 4 points
Forced Fumble = 2 points
Fumble Recovery = 2 points
Pass Deflection = 1 point
Defensive TD = 6 points

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

1. Geno Atkins DT – CIN (9), +18 vs. ECR

Avoid

Atkins is one of the best sack-producing defensive tackles in fantasy. However, he’s getting up there in age and has seen his sack production decrease in each of the last two seasons. Plus, he’s never been much of a tackle producer which ultimately limits his upside. He’s still a top 5 fantasy DT in leagues that break out the position.

2. Damon Harrison DT – NYG (9), +7 vs. ECR

Avoid

Harrison continues to fly under the radar as one of the league’s best interior linemen and is perhaps the NFL’s best tackle-producing defensive tackle. He’s averaged a whopping 80+ tackles a year since coming over to the Giants in 2016. New York’s new defensive coordinator Bettcher employs an aggressive 3-4 scheme that tends to devalue the box score production of the 1-technique nose tackle. Although he’s one of my favorite players, I do expect to see a decline in his tackle production this year.

3. David Irving DT – DAL (8), +30 vs. ECR

Avoid

Irving has been an absolute beast when on the field over the last couple of seasons. However, he’s already been suspended multiple times in his career and will miss the season’s first four games after testing positive for PEDs. There’s the temptation to go up and reach for Irving based on the couple of huge games he’s had in recent memory, just keep in mind that he’s a very high-risk option at the position. I wouldn’t trust him as anything more than a DL4/DL5.

4. Dante Fowler Jr. DE – JAC (9), -8 vs. ECR

Avoid

Given he was the third overall pick in the draft just three seasons ago and is coming off an eight-sack campaign, his inclusion on this list may seem a bit odd. However, he’s suspended for the first game of the season, has failed to produce meaningful tackle numbers, and is tasked with fighting through a talented logjam at defensive end for playing time. At the end of the day, the emergence of Yannick Ngakoue has really hurt Fowler’s value and the team seems fine with using him in more of a limited role. You can bump him up a bit in sack-heavy scoring systems, but I don’t suspect Fowler will find his way on to many of my teams this year.

LINEBACKERS

1. Joe Schobert LB – CLE (11), +7 vs. ECR

Avoid

Schobert was perhaps the biggest IDP surprise of 2017 – finishing as a top 10 linebacker and generating 144 total tackles. With Jamie Collins healthy and recent signing Mychal Kendricks now in the mix for playing time, I highly doubt Schobert will be able to replicate his past season’s production. A lot of people evaluate IDPs based off of a player’s most recent season of production, so Schobert will likely be over drafted. This makes him an avoid for me this year.

2. Von Miller LB – DEN (10), -12 vs. ECR

Avoid

Miller is annually overvalued in fantasy drafts. He may be among the league’s leading men in terms of pass-rushing threat, but that talent unfortunate just doesn’t translate at the same ratio to fantasy worth outside of big play leagues. He’s worth a starting spot in weeks he has moderate to favorable matchups, but otherwise he’s better suited as a LB4 in balanced scoring systems.

3. Preston Brown LB – CIN (9), -4 vs. ECR

Avoid

Brown took advantage of his great situation and extremely friendly home stat crew to rack up nearly 400 total tackles over the course of three seasons while in Buffalo. His move over to the Bengals is going to hurt his numbers. He will probably post starter numbers over the first four games while Burfict is out, but he may be relegated to a two-down role upon Vontaze Burfict’s return.

4. Benardrick McKinney LB – HOU (10), -29 vs. ECR

Avoid

McKinney has for all intents and purposes been a disappointment in Houston. He salvaged his 2016 season with five sacks but he wasn’t so fortunate last year. Zach Cunningham is a rising star within the organization and I suspect it won’t be long before he surpasses McKinney in fantasy value.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1. Harrison Smith S – MIN (10), -4 vs. ECR

Avoid

Smith is annually drafted as a high-tier DB1, but he’s not quite as good of a fantasy producer as he is on-the-field performer. He salvaged his value last year with five interceptions but hasn’t produced 70+ solo tackles since 2014 and is becoming more big play reliant, especially as the Vikings’ defense tends to limit their own tackle opportunity.

2. Karl Joseph S – OAK (7), -11 vs. ECR

Avoid

Despite being a high draft selection (14th overall pick in 2016) and immediately slotting into a starting role on a defense ripe with fantasy opportunity, Joseph has failed to make a consistent impact on the box scores. His upside is a bit tantalizing but after burning me last season, I’d feel more comfortable letting someone take a chance on him at his current ADP.

3. Eric Berry S – KC (12), -6 vs. ECR

Avoid

Berry’s had a very difficult career. He was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in December of 2014 but made a quick return to the field the following year as he made quick work of his cancer. He then tore his Achilles in week 1 last season. As much as I love his story, he’s just not my style of fantasy player. He hasn’t surpassed 70 solo tackles since 2012 and has a very stingy home stat crew when it comes to assisted tackles, so he’s not likely to excel in either of those departments. He’s had some big play success as of recent but he’s never had more than four interceptions in a season and is still an injury risk. He typically goes too high in drafts to have him rostered on many of my teams.

4. Vonn Bell S – NO (6), +31 vs. ECR

Avoid

Bell rescued his fantasy season last year with 4.5 sacks but outside of that he was largely a disappointment. The signing of Kurt Coleman is worrisome and will likely force Bell to continue to operate in a third safety/big nickel safety role. He has some hints of tantalizing upside which keeps him in a relative high tier, but my gut is telling me he’s probably an avoid.

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Questions, comments, or concerns with any of these rankings? If so, please let me know by posting a comment below or emailing me at theidpguru@idpguru.com. You can also hit me up on Twitter.

Last Updated: August 25, 2018