2010 IDP ADP Analysis: Linebackers

Hello and welcome to the second part of a three part series covering IDP average draft positions (ADPs). This specific article will focus on examining the ADPs of linebackers.

My own personal drafting philosophy is heavily predicated on finding as much value as I can with each and every pick. Typically the later in drafts you delve, the more value there is to be found and finding this value is what separates the winners from the losers in fantasy football.

In this article, I will be comparing the ADP of linebackers (provided by FFToolbox via MFL) to my dynasty rankings for linebackers . I choose dynasty rankings over redraft rankings because it seemed the ADPs were more heavily tied to dynasty leagues as opposed to redraft leagues.

Keep in mind that some leagues have more of a big-play slant and therefore pass-rushing linebackers such as DeMarcus Ware, James Harrison, Elvis Dumervil, etc. may have a higher than expected ADP than if they were selected in tackle-heavy or balanced leagues.

The break off point in determining whether a player was “undervalued” or “overvalued” was +/-10 points. When taking a general overview of the results, this specific number seemed to signal the start of the outlying players. Although this number was chosen arbitrarily, it will suffice for our purposes in this article and should allow for some accurate estimates of true value. For each player that was over this threshold, I wrote a short analysis to sum up why they are either under or over valued.

I hope this helps my readers get a better grasp on where linebackers should be taken in most leagues and that it will ultimately take you one step closer to your league championship.

Undervalued Players
1. MLB E.J. Henderson (+18) – Henderson’s value has plummeted due to concerns about his recovery from a broken leg. This injury seems worse than it actually is in terms of recovery time. Statistically, players have a better chance of returning to near full health from a broken leg than a torn ACL. Henderson is expected to participate in training camp practices and is a solid LB2 when healthy. You can grab him in the low LB3 range. That’s good value.

2. WLB Justin Durant (+12) – Durant was my top LB sleeper entering into the off-season. That changed once Kirk Morrison was traded for to play in the middle and Durant was moved to the weak side. However, I think owners are over-calculating the negative effect this switch is going to have. Durant still has pretty good value playing on the weak side of the defense and should make for a solid LB3.

3. MLB Gary Brackett (+10) – Gary Brackett (and the Union Gap) has been a sleeper of mine in each of the last few seasons. He’s about as consistent as they come and due to his non-flashy playing style, he continues to fly under the radar of most fantasy owners.

4. WLB Clint Session (+10) – I actually like Session better than Brackett this season. The WLB position in Indy has been the most fantasy worthy spot of all three linebacker positions due to the Colts heavy use of cover-2 schemes. I don’t believe that 2009 was a fluke. I expect similar results from Session in 2010.

Overvalued Players
1. ROLB Elvis Dumervil (-18) – Beware of pass-rushing linebackers that just came off monster sack seasons since the trend is to fall back down to earth the following year. DeMarcus Ware saw his sack totals drop from 20 in 2008 to 11 in 2009. James Harrison saw his totals fall from 16 in 2008 to 10 in 2009. I’m expecting Dumervil to follow suit especially since he just signed a long-term contract.

2. LILB Lawrence Timmons (-18) – Most people have Timmons ranked in the 20-30 range. I’m not buying it. There’s too much competition for tackles and sacks in Pittsburgh and Timmons is not in a ideal position to put up top 25 numbers. I see him as a mid-to-low LB3 with low LB2 upside at most.

3. WLB David Hawthorne (-17) – Hawthorne is a good example of why just looking at last year’s fantasy stats is not usually a good idea. Hawthorne was a top 5 linebacker the last half of the 2009 season. However, with MLB Lofa Tatupu healthy, Hawthorne been moved to the weak side. With this being said, not only will their be less opportunities for tackles, but there will be more competition as well. He has definite upside, but LB23 is just way too high for my liking.

4. ROLB DeMarcus Ware (-12) – I mentioned Ware earlier and it seems he is continuing to live off his 20 sack season that happened two years ago. Folks, that is done and over with and I doubt he comes close to reaching that again in his career. Defenses are going to continually key on him and make it difficult for him to consistently pressure the QB.

5. SLB Brian Cushing (-11) – Even before his four game suspension, I was labeling Cushing a 2010 bust. When you take away his big plays, Cushing’s tackle numbers leave much to be desired. Additionally, he plays on the strong side of the defense and I just don’t see him maintaining top 10 numbers over the long haul.

Last Updated: July 29, 2010